A macroeconomic assessment of the 2004-2016 period in Brazil: the cycle, crisis and resuming growth of the economy

Abstract Based on Keynes’ concept of convention, this article analyzes the cyclical decline of the Brazilian economy from 2011 to 2014 and the recession from 2015 to 2016 based on the relationship between the macroeconomic policies adopted, the conventions established and private investment. It is argued that contradictions and a lack of coordination marked fiscal, exchange rate and monetary policies in the 2011-2014 period, making optimistic conventions unfeasible and leading to the downward phase of the cycle. During 2015-2016, the mistaken economic policy, the political crisis and the Operation Car Wash (or Lava-Jato in Portuguese) led to the collapse of the Brazilian economy. Finally, the macroeconomic policies required for the sustained economic recovery are pointed out.

摘要 本文基于凯恩斯的惯例（convention）概念，结合所实施的宏观经济政策、既定惯例与私人投资之间的内在关联，剖析了巴西经济在2011年至2014年的周期性下滑，以及2015年至2016年的衰退态势。本文认为，2011至2014年期间，巴西的财政、汇率与货币政策存在诸多矛盾且协调不足，使得乐观的经济惯例难以存续，进而推动经济步入周期下行阶段。2015至2016年，错误的经济政策、政治危机以及“洗车行动”（葡萄牙语原称Lava-Jato）最终导致巴西经济全面崩溃。最后，本文指明了实现经济持续复苏所需的宏观经济政策路径。