Applying Popperian falsifiability to geodynamic hypotheses: empirical testing of the episodic crustal/zircon production hypothesis and selective preservation hypothesis

Even though Earth scientists widely recognize the episodic distribution of zircon ages, the cause of the episodes remains unresolved. Two competing explanations have emerged. Some interpret zircon age peaks as pulses of continental crust production, whereas others suspect production remains relatively constant with the episodes caused by variable preservation potential. However, in their current forms, neither hypothesis contains enough details to rigorously test them on a global scale. Here, we integrate existing ideas of continental evolution into a reduced hypothesis of episodic zircon production coupled with proportionate zircon destruction. We treat global zircon destruction as being random from the collective destructive processes of surface weathering and erosion, delamination of lower continental crust and mantle lithosphere, and subduction. Using Popperian falsifiability as a framework, we interpret selective preservation and present a testable version of it. Likewise, we present an episodic zircon production hypothesis accompanied with testable postulates. Next, both geodynamical hypotheses are tested using standard statistical approaches. The results falsify our interpretation of selective preservation in ten ways and supports the hypothesis of episodic global zircon production coupled with proportionate global zircon destruction.

尽管地球科学家普遍认识到锆石年龄的周期性分布，但其成因仍未得到明确解决。两种相互竞争的解释已浮出水面。一些学者将锆石年龄峰值解读为大陆地壳生成的脉冲，而另一些学者则怀疑生成过程在周期性变化中保持相对恒定，这些周期性变化由可变保存潜力引起。然而，在目前的形态下，这两种假说均缺乏足够细节，无法在全球范围内进行严格测试。在此，我们将关于大陆演化的现有理念整合到一个简化的假说中，即周期性锆石生成与相应锆石破坏。我们将全球锆石破坏视为一种随机现象，这是由地表风化、侵蚀、下地壳和地幔岩石圈剥落以及俯冲等综合破坏过程共同作用的结果。以波普尔的可证伪性原则为框架，我们解读了选择性保存现象，并提出了一种可测试的版本。同样，我们提出了一种周期性锆石生成假说及其可测试的假设。随后，我们利用标准统计方法对这两种地球动力学假说进行了测试。结果显示，以十种方式证伪了我们对选择性保存的解读，并支持了周期性全球锆石生成与相应全球锆石破坏的假说。