Replication Data for: Analysis of international trade data: correlating Chinese economic influence with Chinese United Front influence in Oceania

China is a rising power on the world stage with growing economic and political influence. This influence is particularly felt in Australia and in New Zealand. United Front work is a key aspect of Chinese political influence abroad, particularly after Chinese president Xi Jinping’s rise to power. United Front work is difficult to track, and a survey over all countries is extremely challenging, but Chinese economic influence in each and every country can be measured easily using readily available trade and investment data. This paper finds a significant correlation between the economic influence of China and United Front work. It also highlights particular economic influence indicators that can predict particular United Front influence indicators. The paper thus provides a way to systematically predict United Front influence in many countries by analyzing commodity trade and Chinese investment data. More research can be done, however, in broadening the scope of this project and in improving data quality.

中国是崛起中的世界大国，经济与政治影响力与日俱增。该影响力在澳大利亚与新西兰尤为凸显。统一战线工作（United Front Work）是中国对外政治影响力的核心组成部分，特别是在中国国家主席习近平执政之后。统一战线工作难以追踪，对全球各国开展相关调研极具挑战，但借助可便捷获取的贸易与投资数据，可轻松测算中国在各国的经济影响力。本研究发现，中国经济影响力与统一战线工作之间存在显著相关性。同时，研究还明确了可用于预判特定统一战线影响力指标的若干经济影响力指标。据此，本研究提出了一种通过分析商品贸易与中国对外投资数据，系统性预判多国统一战线影响力的方法。不过，未来仍可通过拓展本研究的覆盖范围、提升数据质量来开展更多后续研究。