Summary of wind and load for ERCOT and MISO during the time periods of the data we used in this study

Table 1. Summary of wind and load for ERCOT and MISO during the time periods of the data we used in this study. Abstract Day-ahead load and wind power forecasts provide useful information for operational decision making, but they are imperfect and forecast errors must be offset with operational reserves and balancing of (real time) energy. Procurement of these reserves is of great operational and financial importance in integrating large-scale wind power. We present a probabilistic method to determine net load forecast uncertainty for day-ahead wind and load forecasts. Our analysis uses data from two different electric grids in the US with similar levels of installed wind capacity but with large differences in wind and load forecast accuracy, due to geographic characteristics. We demonstrate that the day-ahead capacity requirements can be computed based on forecasts of wind and load. For 95% day-ahead reliability, this required capacity ranges from 2100 to 5700 MW for ERCOT, and 1900 to 4500 MW for MISO (with 10 GW of installed wind capacity), depending on the wind and load forecast values. We also show that for each MW of additional wind power capacity for ERCOT, 0.16–0.30 MW of dispatchable capacity will be used to compensate for wind uncertainty based on day-ahead forecasts. For MISO (with its more accurate forecasts), the requirement is 0.07–0.13 MW of dispatchable capacity for each MW of additional wind capacity.

表1 本研究所用数据集时段内，ERCOT（Electric Reliability Council of Texas，得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会）与MISO（Midcontinent Independent System Operator，中西部独立输电运营商）的风电与负荷概况。
摘要：日前负荷与风电出力预测可为电力系统运行决策提供有效参考，但此类预测存在固有偏差，预测误差需通过运行备用与实时电能平衡予以抵消。
在大规模风电并网场景中，此类备用的采购对电力系统运行与经济性均具有重要意义。
本研究提出一种概率方法，用于量化日前风电与负荷预测的净负荷预测不确定性。
本研究的分析采用美国两个风电装机规模相近，但因地理特征差异导致风电与负荷预测精度存在显著差别的独立电网的数据集。
研究表明，日前备用容量需求可基于风电与负荷预测结果计算得出。
在95%日前可靠性标准下，当风电装机容量为10吉瓦时，ERCOT所需备用容量区间为2100~5700兆瓦，MISO则为1900~4500兆瓦，具体数值取决于风电与负荷的预测结果。
研究同时表明，针对ERCOT每新增1兆瓦风电装机容量，需调用0.16~0.30兆瓦可调容量以基于日前预测抵消风电出力不确定性；而对于预测精度更高的MISO，每新增1兆瓦风电装机所需可调容量仅为0.07~0.13兆瓦。