Experience and Self-Interest: Diverging Responses to Global Warming

People are increasingly feeling global warming’s effects through extreme heat and natural disasters. How do these climate shocks affect political attitudes? We argue that the effect of climate-related experiences depends significantly on self-interest. People in more vulnerable locations are more likely to respond to climate shocks with greater concern and more support for mitigation policy. We test this hypothesis with a macroeconomic model of climate change, geospatial data on climate shocks, and survey data of 148,712 people across 137 countries, and over time with the same 9,500 individuals in the United States. The results show that climate shocks heighten risk perceptions and lead to greater support for mitigation policies only among people in climate-vulnerable places. This responsiveness to experience is most evident in democratic countries and among people whose livelihoods depend on the weather. Integrating political economy and behavioral theories helps to explain how political attitudes change.

如今，人们正日益通过极端高温与各类自然灾害，切身感受到全球变暖带来的影响。这类气候冲击将如何作用于民众的政治态度？我们提出，与气候相关的亲历经历所产生的影响，在很大程度上取决于个体的自利性考量：身处气候脆弱性更高区域的民众，更有可能对气候冲击表现出更强的关注度，并更倾向于支持气候减缓政策。为验证这一假说，我们采用了气候变化宏观经济模型、气候冲击地理空间数据，以及覆盖137个国家、总计148712名受访者的调查数据；同时还使用了美国境内9500名固定受访者的追踪调查数据以考察长期效应。研究结果显示，气候冲击仅会提升气候脆弱区域民众的风险感知，并促使他们更支持气候减缓政策。这种对亲历经历的响应性，在民主国家以及生计依赖气象条件的群体中表现得最为显著。整合政治经济学与行为科学理论，有助于阐释民众政治态度的转变机制。