Country Risk and Cost of Equity Dataset for Romania (with Serbia and Hungary Benchmarks), 2015–2024

This dataset contains the quarterly implementation of the Frontier Market Valuation Model (FMVM) for Romania over the period 2015–2024, together with benchmark FMVM series for Serbia and Hungary. The FMVM decomposes the equity risk premium into four additive components: Country Risk Premium (CRP), Liquidity Premium (LP), Behavioral Premium (BP), and Institutional Quality Premium (IQP). These components are combined with global market factors to compute a quarterly FMVM-implied cost of equity for each country.

The Romania_FMVM_Quart.xlsx file provides the complete quarter-by-quarter dataset for Romania, including all FMVM inputs (Rf, GERP, CRP, LP, BP, IQP) and the resulting FMVM cost of equity. It captures Romania’s transition from post-2015 stabilization to the pre-COVID period, the COVID-19 shock, and the subsequent energy/Ukraine crisis, allowing the analysis of structural changes in risk pricing.

The Romania_FMVM_Structural_Changes.xlsx file summarizes FMVM component averages across four structural periods: (1) 2015–2017 stabilization, (2) 2018–2019 FTSE preparation, (3) 2020–2021 COVID shock, and (4) 2022–2024 energy and geopolitical tensions. These aggregates allow researchers to study how sovereign, liquidity, behavioral, and institutional risks evolve under different macro-financial regimes.

The FMVM_Compare_Romania_Serbia_Hungary.xlsx file provides a cross-country comparison dataset. Serbia represents a higher-risk frontier benchmark with elevated liquidity and institutional premia, while Hungary represents a more stable EU emerging-market benchmark with lower CRP and LP relative to Romania. This structure enables multi-country FMVM analysis and highlights Romania’s intermediate position between emerging and frontier market characteristics.

Together, these three files offer a transparent and replicable data foundation for research on country risk, cost of equity estimation, market segmentation, and comparative valuation in Central and Eastern Europe. The dataset is designed for academic publication, policy analysis, and applied finance research requiring multi-premium risk decomposition beyond traditional CAPM or sovereign-spread models.

本数据集包含2015至2024年间罗马尼亚的前沿市场估值模型（Frontier Market Valuation Model, FMVM）季度测算结果，以及塞尔维亚与匈牙利的基准FMVM序列。FMVM将股权风险溢价拆解为四个可加性组成部分：国家风险溢价（Country Risk Premium, CRP）、流动性溢价（Liquidity Premium, LP）、行为溢价（Behavioral Premium, BP）与制度质量溢价（Institutional Quality Premium, IQP）。上述组成部分与全球市场因子相结合，可计算出各国每季度由FMVM推导得出的股权资本成本。

罗马尼亚_FMVM_季度.xlsx文件提供了罗马尼亚完整的逐季度数据集，涵盖所有FMVM输入变量（Rf、GERP、CRP、LP、BP、IQP）以及最终计算得到的FMVM股权资本成本。该数据集覆盖了罗马尼亚从2015年后经济企稳阶段到新冠疫情前时期、新冠疫情冲击以及后续能源与乌克兰危机的完整历程，可用于分析风险定价中的结构性变化。

罗马尼亚_FMVM_结构性变化.xlsx文件汇总了四个结构性阶段的FMVM组成部分均值：(1) 2015-2017年经济企稳阶段、(2) 2018-2019年富时指数（FTSE）筹备阶段、(3) 2020-2021年新冠疫情冲击阶段、(4) 2022-2024年能源与地缘政治紧张阶段。借助这些汇总数据，研究者可探究主权风险、流动性风险、行为风险与制度风险在不同宏观金融环境下的演化路径。

FMVM_罗马尼亚-塞尔维亚-匈牙利对比.xlsx文件提供了跨国比较数据集。塞尔维亚作为高风险前沿市场基准，其流动性溢价与制度质量溢价水平偏高；而匈牙利作为更为稳健的欧盟新兴市场基准，相对罗马尼亚而言CRP与LP更低。该数据集支持多国FMVM分析，并凸显了罗马尼亚介于新兴市场与前沿市场特征之间的中间定位。

上述三份文件共同为中东欧地区的国家风险研究、股权资本成本估算、市场分割研究以及比较估值研究提供了透明且可复现的数据基础。本数据集专为学术出版、政策分析以及需要突破传统资本资产定价模型（Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM）或主权利差模型的多溢价风险分解的应用金融研究而设计。