Table_2_Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021.docx

People’s generation may have become one of the core predictors of their vote choice. This study examines this hypothesis across 21 Western established democracies between 1948 and 2021. An age-period-cohort analysis on 258 national election surveys (N = 462.084) reveals that the most recent generations are much less likely to vote for the major right-wing party in two-party systems. In multi-party systems, the gradual decline of Christian democratic parties has been largely driven by the generational replacement of pre-WW2 cohorts. Social democratic and conservative parties may face a challenge in future decades because their support is particularly low among the most recent generations whereas liberal, socialist, and particularly green parties stand to gain from generational replacement. Far-right parties have been least popular among voters who came of age during the 1930s and 1940s. A small life-cycle effect points out that people over the age of 65 vote slightly more conservative.

选民的代际归属或许已成为其投票选择的核心预测因素之一。本研究针对1948年至2021年间的21个西方成熟民主国家，对这一假说展开检验。针对258项全国选举调查（有效样本量N=462,084）开展的年龄-时期-队列分析（age-period-cohort analysis）结果显示，在两党制体系中，新生代群体支持主流右翼政党的概率显著更低。在多党制体系中，基督教民主政党的式微在很大程度上由二战前出生队列的代际更替所驱动。社会民主政党与保守主义政党在未来数十年或面临挑战，因其支持率在新生代群体中尤为低迷；而自由党、社会党，尤其是绿党，则有望通过代际更替获取更多支持。在20世纪30、40年代成年的选民群体中，极右翼政党的支持率最低。微弱的生命周期效应表明，65岁以上选民的投票立场略微偏保守。