soil moisture reconstruction

Reference: @article{doi:10.1126/science.aaz9600,author = {A. Park Williams and Edward R. Cook and Jason E. Smerdon and Benjamin I. Cook and John T. Abatzoglou and Kasey Bolles and Seung H. Baek and Andrew M. Badger and Ben Livneh },title = {Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought},journal = {Science},volume = {368},number = {6488},pages = {314-318},year = {2020},doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9600},URL = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aaz9600},eprint = {https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.aaz9600},abstract = {Global warming has pushed what would have been a moderate drought in southwestern North America into megadrought territory. Williams et al. used a combination of hydrological modeling and tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to show that the period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest 19-year span since the late 1500s and the second driest since 800 CE (see the Perspective by Stahle). This appears to be just the beginning of a more extreme trend toward megadrought as global warming continues. Science, this issue p. 314; see also p. 238 Global warming is causing megadrought in southwestern North America. Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46\% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103\%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.}} TY - JOURAU - Williams, A. ParkAU - Cook, Benjamin I.AU - Smerdon, Jason E.PY - 2022DA - 2022/03/01TI - Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021JO - Nature Climate ChangeSP - 232EP - 234VL - 12IS - 3AB - A previous reconstruction back to 800 ce indicated that the 2000–2018 soil moisture deficit in southwestern North America was exceeded during one megadrought in the late-1500s. Here, we show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought.SN - 1758-6798UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zDO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zID - Williams2022ER -### 参考文献1： @article{doi:10.1126/science.aaz9600,author = {A. Park Williams and Edward R. Cook and Jason E. Smerdon and Benjamin I. Cook and John T. Abatzoglou and Kasey Bolles and Seung H. Baek and Andrew M. Badger and Ben Livneh },title = {人为变暖对正在形成的北美特大干旱（megadrought）的显著贡献},journal = {《Science》},volume = {368},number = {6488},pages = {314-318},year = {2020},doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9600},URL = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aaz9600},eprint = {https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.aaz9600},abstract = {全球变暖将原本仅会是北美西南部的中度干旱推升至特大干旱（megadrought）级别。Williams等人结合水文模拟与夏季土壤湿度的树木年轮重建研究表明，2000年至2018年是自16世纪末以来最干旱的19年时段，也是公元800年以来第二干旱的时段（详见Stahle的评述文章）。随着全球变暖持续加剧，这似乎只是北美向特大干旱（megadrought）极端化趋势发展的开端。《Science》本期第314页；另见第238页。全球变暖正在引发北美西南部的特大干旱（megadrought）。21世纪北美西南部（southwestern North America, SWNA）严重且持续的干旱促使人们将其与中世纪特大干旱（megadroughts）进行比较，并引发了关于人为气候变化作用的质疑。我们结合水文模拟与新建立的1200年夏季土壤湿度树木年轮重建序列，证实2000–2018年的SWNA干旱是公元800年以来第二严重的19年干旱时段，仅逊色于16世纪末的某次特大干旱（megadrought）。2000–2018年土壤湿度呈现的类似特大干旱（megadrought）的变化轨迹，是由叠加在人为变暖导致的干旱化之上的自然变率所驱动。基于31个气候模型估算的温度、相对湿度和降水的人为趋势，解释了2000–2018年干旱严重程度的46%（模型四分位距为34%至103%），将原本仅为中度的干旱推至与公元800年以来SWNA最严重的特大干旱（megadroughts）相当的变化轨迹。} ### 参考文献2： TY - JOURAU - Williams, A. ParkAU - Cook, Benjamin I.AU - Smerdon, Jason E.PY - 2022DA - 2022/03/01TI - 2020–2021年间正在形成的北美西南部特大干旱（megadrought）的快速加剧JO - 《Nature Climate Change》SP - 232EP - 234VL - 12IS - 3AB - 此前一项追溯至公元800年的重建研究表明，2000–2018年北美西南部的土壤湿度亏缺状况仅在16世纪末的某次特大干旱（megadrought）中被超越。本文研究显示，在2021年出现极端严重的干旱后（其中约19%可归因于人为气候趋势），2000–2021年成为至少自公元800年以来最干旱的22年时段。此次干旱极有可能持续至2022年，其持续时长将与16世纪末的特大干旱（megadrought）相当。SN - 1758-6798UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zDO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zID - Williams2022ER -