On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation

We offer a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare and cyclical implications of moderate trend inflation. In an extended version of a medium-scale New Keynesian model, recent proposals to increase trend inflation from 2 to 4 percent would generate a consumption-equivalent welfare loss of 3.7 percent本研究对温和趋势通胀的福利效应与周期性影响开展了全面评估。在一个扩展的中型新凯恩斯模型（New Keynesian Model）中，近期提出的将趋势通胀从2%上调至4%的方案，将带来3.7%的消费等价福利损失。