Results of market effect.

Consumption is crucial to individual well-being and national economic development. This study investigates whether high-speed rail (HSR) influences consumption expenditure (CE) and consumption structure (CS) of urban and rural Chinese citizens. Using panel data from 2003 to 2019 and econometric models, this study finds that: (1) HSR significantly increases CE for both urban and rural residents, promotes CS upgrades in rural areas, but inhibits CS upgrades in urban areas. These results remain robust after extensive testing. (2) HSR’s impact on urban consumption is relatively focused and singular, whereas its effect on rural consumption is dispersed and extensive. Additionally, the impact of HSR on consumption exhibited significant delays and regional characteristics. (3) Mediation analysis reveals that HSR significantly enhances urban and rural CE and facilitates rural CS upgrades through market, price, and income effects. However, it also triggers housing price increases, impeding urban CS upgrades. This study provides important references for the government to optimize transportation infrastructure investments, promote balanced economic development between urban and rural areas, and enhance residents’ well-being.

消费对于个体福祉与国民经济发展均至关重要。本研究旨在探究高速铁路（High-speed Rail, HSR）对中国城乡居民消费支出（Consumption Expenditure, CE）与消费结构（Consumption Structure, CS）的影响。本研究采用2003至2019年的面板数据与计量经济学模型，得出如下结论：
(1) 高速铁路显著提升了城乡居民的消费支出，推动农村地区消费结构升级，但抑制了城镇地区的消费结构升级；经多维度稳健性检验后，上述结果依然稳健。
(2) 高速铁路对城镇消费的影响相对集中且单一，而对农村消费的影响则呈现分散化与多维度特征；此外，高速铁路对消费的影响还表现出显著的时滞性与区域异质性。
(3) 中介效应分析表明，高速铁路通过市场效应、价格效应与收入效应，显著提升了城乡居民的消费支出，并推动农村消费结构升级；但与此同时，高速铁路也推高了房价，进而抑制了城镇地区的消费结构升级。
本研究可为政府优化交通基础设施投资、推动城乡经济均衡发展以及提升居民福祉提供重要决策参考。