Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

To test if Arctic cetaceans will respond differently to ocean warming in areas west and east of Greenland, we utilized a large tracking dataset spanning 28 years, including sub-populations from all three Arctic endemic cetaceans in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (n=227 individuals; bowhead whale, beluga and narwhal). Using environmental data from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6), a series of species distribution models were used to (i) predict current and (ii) project future (up to 2100) distributions of the three whale species in our study region, and to (iii) assess habitat and latitudinal changes in response to global warming.

为探明北极鲸类在格陵兰岛东西两侧海域对海洋变暖的响应是否存在差异，本研究采用了一套跨度达28年的大型跟踪数据集，涵盖北极大西洋扇区全部3种北极特有鲸类的亚种群，共计227个个体，包括弓头鲸、白鲸与独角鲸。研究采用耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6，CMIP6）下3套不同全球气候模型（Global Climate Models，GCMs）的环境数据，通过一系列物种分布模型完成三项任务：(i) 预测当前研究区域内三种鲸类的分布格局；(ii) 预估至2100年的未来分布情况；(iii) 评估全球变暖背景下其栖息地与纬度分布的变化。