Nonlinear time series analysis of the interaction between the citrus whitefly and the whitefly-specialist ladybird

A comprehensive understanding of the top-down effects of natural enemies on agricultural pests is essential for achieving effective biological control in integrated pest management. However, it is typically difficult to identify causal effects between the interacting species from time series data, which have often been monitored for pest forecasting purposes in agricultural ecosystems, as it is likely to involve nonlinear (state-dependent) population dynamics. In this study, we applied a recently developed framework of nonlinear time series analysis (empirical dynamic modeling) to determine top-down and bottom-up effects between the citrus whitefly Dialeurodes citri and the whitefly-specialist ladybird Serangium japonicum. We used weekly monitoring data for the two species collected over 4 years in pesticide-free citrus groves located in Shizuoka Prefecture, central Japan. Although we were able to identify time-delayed positive effects of D. citri abundance on S. japonicum abundance, we...

全面厘清天敌对农业害虫的下行控制效应，是达成害虫综合治理框架下高效生物防治的必要前提。然而，农业生态系统中常为害虫预测预报而采集的时间序列监测数据，往往涉及非线性（状态依赖）的种群动态，因此难以精准甄别互作物种间的因果关联。本研究采用新近提出的非线性时间序列分析框架——经验动态建模（empirical dynamic modeling），以解析柑橘粉虱（Dialeurodes citri）与专嗜粉虱的日本瓢虫（Serangium japonicum）之间的下行与上行控制效应。我们使用了日本中部静冈县内一处无农药柑橘园中，历时4年针对这两种昆虫采集的每周监测数据。尽管我们成功识别出柑橘粉虱种群丰度对日本瓢虫种群丰度存在时滞正效应，但本研究……