The results of the benchmark regression.

This paper explores the impact of artificial intelligence and industrial robots on firms’ export behaviour and divides the impact mechanism into the productivity effect and labour substitution effect. It examines the effect of industrial robots on firms’ export value by using Chinese Customs data, Chinese Industrial Firm data and robot data from the International Robot Federation (IRF). The main findings are as follows: Firstly, the impact of artificial intelligence and industrial robots on Chinese firms’ export value is generally negative, which means the negative labour substitution effect dominates the positive productivity effect. Secondly, the impact of artificial intelligence varies significantly by industry, and the export value of firms from high-tech industries benefits from the use of industrial robots. Thirdly, the impact of artificial intelligence on firms’ export value also varies by time; before 2003, the use of industrial robots showed mainly an inhibiting effect on firms’ exports, which turned into a driving effect thereafter, and after 2006, industrial robots began to significantly promote firms’ export. Finally, the higher the quality of export products, the more likely the use of industrial robots will be to promote firms’ export value, and the higher the capital–labour ratio is, the more likely firms’ export value will be to benefit from the use of artificial intelligence and industrial robots. On the basis of these findings, this study proposes promoting the productivity effect to dominate the labour substitution effect through technological progress and the improvement of export product quality.本文探究了人工智能与工业机器人对企业出口行为的影响，并将其影响机制划分为生产率效应与劳动替代效应。本文依托中国海关数据、中国工业企业数据以及国际机器人联合会（International Robot Federation, IRF）发布的机器人数据，考察了工业机器人对企业出口额的作用效果。核心研究结论如下：其一，人工智能与工业机器人整体上对中国企业出口额产生负向影响，即负向劳动替代效应的作用强度超过正向生产率效应。其二，人工智能的影响因行业差异存在显著异质性，高技术行业企业的出口额会因工业机器人的应用而获益。其三，人工智能对企业出口额的影响随时间呈现动态变化：2003年以前，工业机器人的应用主要对企业出口产生抑制作用，此后该作用转向驱动效应，且在2006年之后，工业机器人开始显著推动企业出口增长。其四，出口产品质量越高，工业机器人的应用越有助于提升企业出口额；而企业资本劳动比越高，其出口额越能从人工智能与工业机器人的应用中获益。基于上述研究结论，本文提出应通过技术进步与出口产品质量升级，强化生产率效应的主导地位，削弱劳动替代效应的负面影响。