Institutional governance in developing countries, political factors as drivers of institutional change: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: This article provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of institutional dynamism in 38 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, considering institutions as a form of capital. The empirical results show, using the generalized least squares (GLS) method, the maximum likelihood method, the Akaike information criterion, the Bayes information criterion, and the Davidson and Mackinnon (1981) non-nested hypothesis test, that institutional change in SSA countries is fundamentally linked to political factors. Democracy, regime characteristics, autocracy, income inequality, and natural resource rents are fundamental to the institutional capital stock in SSA. However, the cultural environment is a determinant of institutional equilibrium, which is the central element in institutional determination in SSA countries. EL classification: B51, B52; C23; N37

摘要：本文将制度视作一种资本形态，对38个撒哈拉以南非洲（sub-Saharan African, SSA）国家的制度活力展开理论与实证分析。实证研究采用广义最小二乘法（generalized least squares, GLS）、极大似然估计法、赤池信息准则（Akaike information criterion）、贝叶斯信息准则（Bayes information criterion）以及戴维森-麦金农（1981）非嵌套假设检验（Davidson and Mackinnon (1981) non-nested hypothesis test）等方法，结果表明：撒哈拉以南非洲国家的制度变迁本质上与政治因素紧密关联；民主水平、政权特征、专制程度、收入不平等及自然资源租金，是该地区制度资本存量的核心影响因素。然而，文化环境是制度均衡的决定因素，而制度均衡正是撒哈拉以南非洲国家制度确立的核心要素。EL分类号：B51、B52；C23；N37