Trends in the use of seat belts and mobile phones and their seasonal variations in Florence (2005-2015)

IntroductionAbout 1.25 million people worldwide die every year because of road accidents. Risk is higher when drivers use mobile phones, whereas seat belts help to prevent crash-related injury. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence, associated factors, and temporal trend of the use of seat belts and mobile phones among drivers and passengers in Florence, Italy (2005–2015).MethodsUse of seat belts and mobile phones use was monitored via direct observation in four areas in the province of Florence. We fitted Poisson regression models with robust variance to investigate the factors associated with the use of seat belts and mobile phones use by the drivers and to explore long-term trends and seasonal patterns in the two time-series.ResultsWe observed a total of an overall 134,775 vehicles: seat belts were worn by 71.8% of drivers and front-seat passengers and 27.6% of back-seat passengers, while mobile phones were being used by 4.8% of drivers. Drivers were more likely to wear seat belt when transporting passengers (≥2 vs none: prevalence ratio [PR] 1.21, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.14–1.29) and while driving in the afternoon (PR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03–1.05), and less likely when the front-seat passenger was not wearing seat belts (PR 0.33, 95% CI 0.32–0.34). After an initial increase, seat belts use by the driver decreased over time (-0.5% each year during 2010–2015), with significant peaks and troughs in July and January, respectively. Mobile phone use by the driver was inversely associated with wearing seat belts (PR 0.67, 95% CI 0.64–0.70) and carrying passengers (≥2 vs. none PR 0.20, 95% CI 0.07–0.52). The proportion of drivers using mobile phones did not vary over time nor showed any clear seasonality.ConclusionsDrivers’ risky behaviours (not wearing a seat belt and using a mobile phone) are associated, showing a global misperception of risk among a subset of drivers. The number of passengers and their behaviour is also associated with the driver’s attitude. The effectiveness of primary enforcement laws has declined in Italy in recent years; therefore, other strategies should be devised and implemented.

引言：全球每年约有125万人死于道路交通事故。驾驶员使用手机时事故风险显著升高，而安全带可有效降低碰撞导致的损伤。本研究旨在评估意大利佛罗伦萨省2005至2015年间，辖区内四个区域的驾驶员与乘客使用安全带及手机的普及率、相关影响因素及时序变化趋势。

研究方法：通过直接观察法，对佛罗伦萨省四个区域的交通行为开展监测，记录驾驶员及乘客的安全带与手机使用情况。本研究采用稳健方差泊松回归（Poisson regression）模型，分析与驾驶员使用安全带、手机相关的影响因素，并探究两个时间序列的长期趋势与季节波动规律。

研究结果：本次研究共观测到134775辆次机动车；71.8%的驾驶员及前排乘客佩戴了安全带，后排乘客的安全带佩戴率仅为27.6%，另有4.8%的驾驶员在驾驶过程中使用手机。当驾驶员搭载乘客（≥2人 vs 无乘客：患病率比（prevalence ratio, PR）1.21，95%置信区间（confidence interval, CI）1.14~1.29）且于下午时段驾驶时，其安全带佩戴概率更高；若前排乘客未佩戴安全带，则驾驶员安全带佩戴概率显著降低（PR 0.33，95%CI 0.32~0.34）。驾驶员安全带佩戴率在经历初始上升后，于2010至2015年间逐年下降（每年下降0.5%），且呈现明显的季节波动：7月达到峰值，1月则处于谷值。驾驶员使用手机的行为与安全带佩戴呈负相关（PR 0.67，95%CI 0.64~0.70），同时与搭载乘客数量呈负相关（≥2人 vs 无乘客：PR 0.20，95%CI 0.07~0.52）。驾驶员使用手机的比例未随时间发生明显变化，也未呈现明确的季节规律。

研究结论：驾驶员的危险驾驶行为（未佩戴安全带及使用手机）之间存在相关性，反映出部分驾驶员对道路交通安全风险存在全局性认知偏差。乘客数量及其安全行为同样会影响驾驶员的驾驶态度。近年来意大利的道路交通安全强制执法法规的实施效果有所下滑，因此亟需制定并推行其他干预策略。