The Trilogy among Poverty, Inequality and Insecurity in Nigeria: Does Governance Quality Matter?

The study examines the role of governance in the relationship between insecurity, inequality, and poverty in Nigeria using annual data from 1996 to 2020. To control for endogeneity among the variables, we employ generalized methods of the moment (GMM). We find that the main causes of insecurity are poverty, illiteracy rates, and inequality. Remarkably, unemployment appears to have no impact on the current insecurity issue in the country, indicating that the security challenge in Nigeria is more of a structural and systemic problem. We find that control of corruption, political stability, and voice and accountability have a strong mediating influence on solving the influence of poverty on insecurity. This suggests that Nigeria's economic prosperity is threatened by rising poverty, inequality, and weak governance. Therefore, fighting insecurity in a big country like Nigeria requires quality control of corruption, voice, and accountability, all of which are critical in the battle against poverty and inequality.

本研究采用1996年至2020年的年度数据，探讨了治理因素在尼日利亚不安全状况、不平等与贫困三者关系中的作用。为控制变量间的内生性问题，本文采用广义矩估计法（Generalized Method of Moments, GMM）。研究发现，贫困、文盲率与不平等是引发该国不安全状况的主要诱因。值得注意的是，失业率似乎对尼日利亚当前的不安全问题并无显著影响，这表明该国的安全挑战本质上属于结构性与体制性难题。研究还表明，腐败管控、政治稳定以及言论与问责机制，在缓解贫困对不安全状况的影响方面具有强劲的中介作用。这意味着，持续加剧的贫困、不平等以及疲软的治理能力，正威胁着尼日利亚的经济繁荣。因此，对于尼日利亚这样的大国而言，治理不安全问题亟需强化腐败管控、言论自由与问责机制——而这些要素均是对抗贫困与不平等的关键所在。