不同环境类型对华北落叶松分布的潜在影响

植物分布-环境因子之间的关系是生态学、生物地理学研究中一个核心问题。采用最大熵物种分布模型，选取气候、土壤和地形3 类环境类型中33 个因子，对气候、气候-土壤、气候-地形、气候-土壤-地形4 种环境组合对华北落叶松在河北省、山西省和内蒙古自治区的分布预测进行建模和检验。利用ArcGIS 空间统计，划分华北落叶松分布适宜区，并制作分布适宜性等级图。结果表明，不同环境类型组合对华北落叶松分布影响的训练集和检验集的AUC 值在0．965—0．983 之间，均达到极准确的精度水平。

The relationship between plant distribution and environmental factors is a core research topic in ecology and biogeography. Using the Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Model, 33 environmental factors were selected from three categories including climate, soil and topography, and modeling and validation were conducted for four environmental combination scenarios (climate-only, climate-soil, climate-topography, and climate-soil-topography) to predict the distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr in Hebei Province, Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. ArcGIS spatial statistics were utilized to delineate the suitable distribution areas of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr and generate the distribution suitability grade map. The results showed that the AUC (Area Under Curve) values of the training and validation sets for the effects of different environmental combination types on the distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr ranged from 0.965 to 0.983, all reaching an extremely high accuracy level.