Economic Valuations and Interethnic Fears: Perceptions of Chinese Migration in the Russian Far East

When members of one ethnic group feel threatened by population trends favoring ethnic "others," would perceived economic gains associated with such population change (as in many cases of migration) reduce perceived threats to security and interethnic hostility? An ideal quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question is Chinese cross-border migration into the Russian Far East, for which the author designed and directed an opinion survey in September 2000 with 1,010 respondents selected through stratified random sampling. Findings based on multiple regression analysis suggest that individuals who perceive interactions with members of a culturally distant ethnic group as economically beneficial feel less threatened and favor less hostile responses toward ethnic "others" -- even if these individuals adhere to negative stereotypes against the latter. Strong effects of perceived economic gains (or losses) with respect to the local economy endure when controlled for party identification, perceptions of relative deprivation, perceptions of the neighboring state's intent to undertake aggressive actions, and perceptions of military balance, as well as for local economic and demographic trends. For both threat and hostility, perceptions of total economic effects attributed to ethnic "others" -- but not perceptions of relative gains among groups -- are found to be a significant predictor.

当某一族群成员感受到有利于其他族群的人口趋势所带来的威胁时，与这类人口变化（如诸多移民案例）相关的感知经济收益，能否减轻其对安全的感知威胁与族群间敌意？用于解答这一问题的理想准实验场景，便是中国跨境移民进入俄罗斯远东地区。作者于2000年9月设计并主持了一项意见调查，通过分层随机抽样（stratified random sampling）选取了1010名受访者。基于多元回归分析（multiple regression analysis）的研究结果显示，那些认为与文化上疏远的族群成员互动具有经济收益的个体，其感知到的威胁程度更低，且对其他族群的敌意也更弱——即便这些个体对后者持有负面刻板印象。即使在控制了党派认同（party identification）、相对剥夺感（relative deprivation）感知、邻国侵略意图感知、军事平衡（military balance）感知，以及当地经济与人口趋势等变量后，与本地经济相关的感知经济收益（或损失）仍具有显著效应。研究还发现，无论是感知威胁还是敌意，归因于其他族群的整体经济效应感知——而非群体间相对收益感知——均被证实为重要的预测变量。