Replication Data for: Election Timing, Electorate Composition, and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts

There is considerable debate about how election timing shapes who votes, election outcomes, and, ultimately, public policy. We examine these matters by combining information on more than 10,000 school tax referenda with detailed micro-targeting data on voters participating in each election. The analysis confirms that timing influences voter composition in terms of partisanship, ideology, and the numerical strength of powerful interest groups. But, in contrast to prominent theories of election timing, these effects are modest in terms of their likely impact on election outcomes. Instead, timing has the most significant impact on voter age, with the elderly being the most over-represented group in low-turnout special elections. The electoral (and policy) implications of this effect vary between states, and we offer one explanation for this variation.

关于选举时机如何影响选民构成、选举结果乃至最终公共政策，学界存在广泛争议。本研究通过整合逾1万次学校税收公投的相关信息，以及各选举中参与选民的详细微观靶向数据，对上述问题展开分析。结果证实，选举时机确实会从党派立场、意识形态以及强势利益集团的人数规模这三个维度影响选民构成。但与主流选举时机理论相悖的是，这些因素对选举结果的潜在影响相对有限。相较而言，选举时机对选民年龄结构的影响最为显著：在低投票率的特别选举中，老年群体的代表性过剩问题最为突出。这一效应所带来的选举（及政策）层面的影响在各州之间存在差异，本研究针对该差异提供了一种解释。