Results of mediating effect regression analysis.

This study utilizes panel data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2020 to investigate the impact of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development by constructing an economic high-quality development index and a carbon-neutral development index. Firstly, the study examines the effects of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development using baseline regression and spatial Durbin regression. The results indicate that carbon-neutral development has a positive direct effect on economic high-quality growth, but there are negative spatial spillover effects. Secondly, this study employs total factor productivity (TFP) as an intermediate variable in the mediation model regression. The findings demonstrate that carbon-neutral development significantly improves TFP, and the significant improvement in TFP promotes high-quality economic growth. Lastly, the study conducts regional heterogeneity analysis and finds a significant promoting effect of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development in the eastern and central regions of China, while it is not significant in the western region. Therefore, it is recommended that China, in the process of achieving carbon-neutral growth, consider the geographical connections between different regions to prevent negative spillover effects. Additionally, regional heterogeneity should be taken into account when formulating relevant policies to promote economic high-quality development.

本研究采用2011-2020年中国大陆30个省份的面板数据，通过构建经济高质量发展指数（economic high-quality development index）与碳中和发展指数（carbon-neutral development index），探究碳中和发展对经济高质量发展的影响。首先，本研究通过基准回归与空间杜宾回归检验碳中和发展对经济高质量发展的作用效果，结果显示：碳中和发展对经济高质量增长具有正向直接效应，但存在负向空间溢出效应。其次，本研究以全要素生产率（total factor productivity, TFP）作为中介变量开展中介模型回归分析，结果表明碳中和发展可显著提升全要素生产率，而全要素生产率的显著提升能够推动经济高质量增长。最后，本研究开展区域异质性分析，发现碳中和发展对中国东部与中部地区的经济高质量发展具有显著促进作用，但对西部地区的促进效果并不显著。据此，本研究建议中国在推进碳中和增长的过程中，需兼顾不同地区间的地理关联，以规避负向空间溢出效应；同时在制定推动经济高质量发展的相关政策时，应充分考虑区域异质性特征。