Data_Sheet_1_Harnessing climate services to support community resilience planning: lessons learned from a community-engaged approach to assessing NOAA’s National Water Model.pdf

IntroductionInland and coastal flooding and other water-based natural disasters are projected to increase in severity, frequency, and intensity as global temperatures rise, placing a growing number of US communities at risk. Governments at the local, state, and federal levels have been embracing resilience planning to better predict, mitigate, and adapt to such shocks and hazards. A growing number of climate services have been developed to aid communities engaged in these efforts to access, interpret, and make decisions with climate-related data and information. An important tool for potentially supporting this planning is the National Water Model (NWM), created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Water Center (NWC). The NWM is a river and streamflow model that can forecast conditions for the continental United States.
MethodsHowever, community end-users were not being effectively engaged in ways that result in widespread tool use and adoption. From 2021 to 2023, seven geographically diverse US communities agreed to participate in a study to understand how the NWM might be applied in resilience planning. Interviews and collaborative sessions were conducted with NWC/NOAA staff and community resilience stakeholders in Burlington, VT; Cincinnati, OH; Portland, OR; Charlotte, NC; Boulder, CO; Minneapolis; MN; and Houston, TX
Results and DiscussionResults provide an improved understanding of potential applications of the National Water Model and have identified actions to overcome the barriers to its use among municipal and regional resilience planners. This research yielded a set of recommendations, co-developed between the seven communities and NWC/ NOAA staff, for how these barriers could be overcome to facilitate wider use of the NWM and its data and visualization services in resilience planning. This study highlights the NWM’s applicability at shorter timescales in resilience planning and points to a more general need for climate services to accommodate near-, medium-, and longterm time frames. The study also found many community stakeholders who use water science and information in resilience planning have diverse disciplinarily backgrounds. Importantly, the majority were not trained hydrologists or water scientists, pointing to the critical need for climate service developers, including the NWC, to embrace co-development efforts that involve a wider range of end-users, including community resilience planners.

引言
随着全球气温升高，内陆与沿海洪涝及其他水相关自然灾害的严重程度、发生频率与强度预计将持续上升，越来越多的美国社区因此面临风险。地方、州及联邦各级政府纷纷推进韧性规划，以更好地预测、缓解并适应此类灾害冲击与风险。与此同时，越来越多的气候服务工具应运而生，助力参与韧性规划的社区获取、解读气候相关数据与信息，并依托其开展决策。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration，NOAA）下属国家水中心（National Water Center，NWC）开发的国家水模型（National Water Model，NWM），便是支撑此类规划的重要工具。该模型可针对美国本土区域开展河流与径流模拟预报。

方法
然而，社区终端用户并未通过有效方式参与，未能实现该工具的广泛应用与普及。2021年至2023年间，7个地理分布各异的美国社区参与本研究，旨在探究国家水模型在韧性规划中的应用路径。研究团队分别与佛蒙特州伯灵顿、俄亥俄州辛辛那提、俄勒冈州波特兰、北卡罗来纳州夏洛特、科罗拉多州博尔德、明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯以及得克萨斯州休斯顿的国家水中心/NOAA工作人员及社区韧性利益相关方开展访谈与协作研讨。

结果与讨论
研究结果深化了对国家水模型潜在应用场景的认知，并明确了破解市级与区域韧性规划者使用该模型时面临的障碍的具体举措。本研究联合7个参与社区与国家水中心/NOAA工作人员共同制定了一系列建议方案，旨在破除上述障碍，推动国家水模型及其数据与可视化服务在韧性规划中的更广泛应用。本研究凸显了国家水模型在短时间尺度韧性规划中的适用性，并指出气候服务需兼顾近、中、长期时间跨度的普遍需求。此外，研究发现，众多在韧性规划中使用水科学相关数据与信息的社区利益相关方，其学科背景各不相同。尤为重要的是，其中多数从业者并非水文或水科学专业背景，这表明包括国家水中心在内的气候服务开发方亟需推进跨更多终端用户群体的协作开发工作，其中就涵盖社区韧性规划者。