Replication data for: Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland

Does physical surveillance hinder or foster anti-regime resistance? A common view holds that surveillance prevents resistance by providing regimes with high-quality intelligence on dissident networks, and by instilling fear in citizens. We contrast this view using formerly classified data from Communist Poland. We show that communities exposed to secret police officers were more likely to organize protests, but also engaged in less sabotage. To ensure that the correlation is causal, we use an instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the exogenous assignment of Catholic “spy priests” to local communities. To make sense of the unexpected finding, we draw on qualitative interviews and archival sources. We document that Poland’s comprehensive use of surveillance created widespread anger as well as an incentive for citizens to reveal their true loyalties, thus facilitating anti-regime collective action. Once on the streets, protesters refrained from sabotage to signal their political motivation to bystanders and authorities alike.

实体监视究竟是阻碍还是助长了反政权抵抗运动？学界主流观点认为，监视管控通过为政权提供异见网络的高质量情报，并在民众中灌输恐惧情绪，从而遏制抵抗行动。本文依托前波兰共产党执政时期的解密档案数据，对这一主流观点提出挑战。研究发现，受秘密警察监控的社区不仅更易组织抗议活动，同时参与蓄意破坏行动（sabotage）的频次更低。为验证该相关关系的因果性，我们采用了工具变量法，利用天主教“间谍神父”被外部分配至地方社区这一外生冲击作为识别策略。为解释这一意料之外的研究发现，我们结合质性访谈与档案资料展开分析。研究表明，波兰全面推行的监视体系不仅引发了广泛的民众不满，同时也促使民众表露真实的政治立场，进而推动了反政权集体行动的开展。而当抗议者走上街头后，他们会刻意规避破坏行动，以此向旁观者与当局传递自身的政治诉求。