Quantitative Risk Analysis of China's Financial Industry-Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

In recent years, with the development of science and technology in China, the financial industry has also undergone significant changes. In the diversified financial field, the diversified financial system headed by financial technology gradually occupies a dominant position. The cash of financial technology has played a very important role in improving the efficiency of financial services. How ever, fintech goes hand in hand with fintech risks. This paper uses AHP + fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, seeks 50 financial experts to comprehensively quantify the risk of financial industry, and explores the leading factors of China's financial industry risks at present, so as to make predictable intervention. It is found that technical risk, moral risk and legal risk, with a weight of 76% and a fuzzy evaluation index of "high", are the main factors affecting financial technology risks, while traditional financial risk account for the majority but only account for 24%. Although the weight ratio is not large, it still cannot be ignored. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the vague financial industry risk, explore the dominance of financial technology risk and traditional financial risk in the current financial industry, and conclude that in the face of the future development of China's financial industry, it is necessary to pay more attention to intervening in the risk brought by financial technology, so as to optimize resource allocation, but traditional financial risk cannot be ignored.

近年来，随着我国科学技术的蓬勃发展，金融行业也迎来了深刻变革。在多元化金融领域中，以金融科技（financial technology）为核心的多元化金融体系逐渐占据主导地位。金融科技的资金投入在提升金融服务效率方面发挥了至关重要的作用，然而，金融科技在发展的同时也伴随着自身的风险隐患。本文采用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP）+模糊综合评价模型（fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model），邀请50位金融领域专家，对金融行业风险进行全面量化评估，并探析当前我国金融行业风险的主导成因，以期开展可预判的风险干预。研究发现，技术风险、道德风险与法律风险的权重占比达76%，模糊评价指数为"高"，是影响金融科技风险的核心因素；而传统金融风险虽曾占据主导地位，但其权重仅为24%。尽管其权重占比不高，但仍不容忽视。本研究的目的在于量化模糊化的金融行业风险，探析当前金融行业中金融科技风险与传统金融风险的主导地位，并得出结论：面对我国金融行业的未来发展，需更加注重干预金融科技带来的风险以优化资源配置，但同时也不可忽视传统金融风险。