Understanding regional variability in water, energy, and food (WEF) security: an Arctic case-study

Arctic nations are among the most water, energy, and food (WEF) secure nations of the world. National indices can, however, mask intra-regional disparities that exist within nations. The variable conditions of remote and sparsely populated regions are at particular risk of being obscured through the aggregation of national-level reporting. In this paper, we present the results of a regional (<i>N</i> = 27) assessment of WEF security in six Arctic states. Our assessment found considerable variability that ranged from highly secure to highly insecure regions that differ dramatically from state-level reporting. With few exceptions, Alaska and northern Canada suffer from higher rates of WEF insecurity than the northern regions of Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Although logistical, demographic, and climatic conditions contribute to these differing conditions, inequitable public investment in WEF services is a major constraint to service provisioning. Whereas regions in the European Arctic enjoy conditions of relative WEF security, they too may be challenged to maintain these conditions and adapt to not only a changing climate but also geo-political uncertainties that could obstruct the delivery of WEF services. Being attentive to dynamic conditions will be a critical and necessary step to achieving sustained WEF security in all Arctic regions.

北极国家是全球水、能源与粮食（Water-Energy-Food，WEF）安全水平最高的国家之列。然而，国家级安全指数往往会掩盖国家内部存在的区域间不均衡现象。偏远且人口稀少的地区其环境条件存在显著差异，这类地区的安全状况尤其容易因国家级报告的汇总统计而被遮蔽。本研究针对6个北极国家开展了样本量为N=27的区域尺度WEF安全评估，现将相关评估结果予以呈现。评估发现，区域间存在显著差异：从高度安全到高度不安全的区域均有分布，这与国家级层面的报告结果存在巨大反差。除极少数例外情况外，阿拉斯加与加拿大北部地区的WEF不安全发生率显著高于冰岛、挪威、瑞典及芬兰的北部区域。尽管后勤保障、人口结构与气候条件是造成这种差异的影响因素，但公共资源在WEF服务供给上的分配不公，仍是制约服务供给的主要瓶颈。尽管欧洲北极地区整体拥有相对较好的WEF安全保障条件，但该区域仍面临维持现有安全水平的挑战：不仅需要适应气候变化，还需应对可能阻碍WEF服务供给的地缘政治不确定性。密切关注动态变化的区域环境，是实现所有北极地区WEF安全可持续发展的关键且必要步骤。