The reputation of the euro and the European Central Bank: interlinked or disconnected?

The euro and the European Central Bank (ECB) are inextricably linked at the institutional level, yet public opinion diverges: support for the euro remained high even at the height of the crisis while trust in the ECB saw a steep decline. How can we explain divergences between support for the euro and trust in the ECB? The present paper seeks to complement the existing literature by developing a unified analytical framework of public support for Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and introducing a novel typology of euro and ECB sceptics and supporters. Empirical findings show that support for the euro is predominantly value-based, whereas perceived performance matters comparatively more for trust in the ECB. They suggest that value-based support has been critical during the crisis in ensuring continued public support for EMU despite perceptions of underperformance.

欧元与欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank, ECB）在制度层面存在密不可分的关联，但公众舆论却呈现显著分化：即便在危机最严峻的阶段，民众对欧元的支持率仍维持高位，而对欧洲中央银行的信任度却出现大幅下滑。我们该如何解释欧元支持与欧洲中央银行信任之间的这种差异？本文旨在弥补现有研究的不足，构建一套公众对经济与货币联盟（Economic and Monetary Union, EMU）支持态度的统一分析框架，并提出一种全新的欧元与欧洲中央银行怀疑者及支持者的分类类型学。实证结果显示，民众对欧元的支持主要基于价值理念，而对欧洲中央银行的信任则相对更依赖于其感知到的履职表现。研究表明，尽管存在履职不佳的感知，但基于价值理念的支持在危机期间仍是保障公众持续支持经济与货币联盟的关键因素。