Tsunami Deposits in the Guerrero Seismic Gap, Mexico: Insights from Location Analysis, Earthquake and Tsunami Models, and Proxy Dataset

Globally, the most significant tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred along subduction zones. Catastrophic events surpassing magnitude 9, such as those witnessed in Chile, Sumatra, and Japan, have occurred in regions where instrumental records of similar events are lacking. Despite the absence of such occurrences along the 1000-kilometer-long Mexican subduction zone, historical and geological evidence strongly suggests the likelihood of a magnitude 8.6 tsunamigenic earthquake. However, the Guerrero seismic gap has remained devoid of high-magnitude earthquakes for over a century. In this study, we present findings from analyses of sediment grain size, geochemistry, microfossils, magnetic properties, and radiometric and optically stimulated luminescence dating conducted along the Guerrero coast. Our research provides compelling evidence of a 2000-year history of significant tsunamis triggered by potentially large earthquakes. Numerical modeling reinforces our conclusions, pointing to a magnitude >8 event occurring around the year 1300 in the Guerrero seismic gap. This evidence underscores the critical importance of evaluating earthquake and tsunami potential through long-term evidence and instrumental observations along subduction zones globally. Additionally, this dataset includes the locations of study sites, proxy data, and earthquake and tsunami models.

Source data:

Grain size - Figure S1

Geochemical - Figure S2

Maximum tsunami wave amplitude - Figure 3d and S4

Maximum tsunami wave amplitude - Figure S5c

全球范围内，规模最显著的致海啸地震均发生于俯冲带（subduction zone）沿线。诸如智利、苏门答腊与日本发生的震级9级以上灾难性地震，即发生在缺乏同类事件仪器观测记录的区域。尽管长达1000千米的墨西哥俯冲带沿线尚未记录到此类强震，但历史与地质证据均强烈指向该区域存在发生8.6级致海啸地震的可能性。然而，格雷罗地震空区（Guerrero seismic gap）已逾百年未发生高震级地震。本研究针对格雷罗海岸开展了沉积物粒度、地球化学、微体化石、磁性特征以及放射性测年（radiometric dating）与光释光测年（optically stimulated luminescence dating）分析，现将研究结果予以呈现。本研究提供了确凿证据，证明该区域存在长达2000年的、由潜在强震触发的大规模海啸历史。数值模拟结果进一步佐证了本研究结论，表明格雷罗地震空区曾于公元1300年左右发生过震级大于8级的地震。该研究结果凸显了在全球俯冲带沿线，通过长期地质证据与仪器观测评估地震及海啸潜在风险的极端重要性。此外，本数据集包含研究点位坐标、代用指标数据以及地震与海啸数值模型。
源数据：
沉积物粒度分析——图S1
地球化学分析——图S2
最大海啸波幅——图3d与图S4
最大海啸波幅——图S5c