Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales

Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices) or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices). We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America). We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to diversification of adaptive activities on some sites in South Asia and Central America, but increases specialization in West and East Africa.

小农耕作体系面临多重挑战，包括人口持续增长、城市化进程、收入差距、土地退化、农场规模缩减与生产力下滑，而气候模式的不确定性进一步加剧了上述问题。明晰小农农业生产实践的影响因素，对于设计并落地切实有效的干预措施（包括气候变化适应方案）至关重要。本研究聚焦小农开展农业适应实践的两大维度：一是集约化适应（即采用更多类型的适应手段），二是多元化适应（即采用差异化的适应手段）。本研究使用的数据集覆盖全球四大区域（东非、西非、南亚及中美洲）的15个国家，共包含38个调查点位的5314户随机抽样农户。我们构建了实证模型，用于评估全球尺度下农业适应活动的集约化与多元化的影响因素。研究发现，全球范围内能够提升适应集约化水平的适应能力相关因素，涵盖信息获取与人力资本、财务状况、资产禀赋、家庭基础设施及从业经验等维度。与之相对，全球范围内对适应多元化具有显著驱动作用的因素寥寥无几，一个突出的例外是气象信息获取渠道——该因素同样能够提升适应集约化水平。对适应活动动因的探究显示，即便在气候变化背景下，欠发达市场的现存条件仍是农户开展适应实践的核心推动力。本研究还对不同空间尺度下的影响因素进行了对比分析，结果揭示了多条本地化路径：通过这些路径，政策干预可缓解农户面临的经济约束，同时推动集约化与多元化两类农业适应实践的发展。例如，气象信息获取对非洲地区的适应集约化水平并无显著影响，但在孟加拉国与印度的多个调查点位中则表现出显著作用。此外，气象信息获取在南亚与中美洲的部分调查点位会推动适应活动的多元化，但在西非与东非地区则会提升农户的适应专业化程度。