Dual effects of technology change: how does water technological progress affect China's water consumption?

Technological progress is closely related to water consumption. Most studies have emphasized technological progress with the intensity effect in reducing water consumption but ignored its scale effect on economic growth, which leads to an increase in water consumption. In order to clarify the trade-off of technology progress, we combine the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function with the Kaya identity and further uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to estimate the Solow residual value effect, the industrial water intensity effect, the capital input effect, the labor input effect, the industrial structure effect, the water technology input effect and total water consumption change of different provinces from 2003 to 2020. The basic data we used in the LMDI model is shown below.

技术进步与水资源消耗息息相关。多数研究均强调具备强度效应的技术进步可降低水资源消耗，却忽略了其对经济增长的规模效应——而该效应反而会推高水资源消耗。为厘清技术进步的权衡关系，本研究将柯布-道格拉斯（Cobb-Douglas, C-D）生产函数与Kaya恒等式（Kaya identity）相结合，并进一步采用对数平均迪氏指数（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, LMDI）法，估算2003至2020年各省的索洛余值效应（Solow residual value effect）、工业用水强度效应、资本投入效应、劳动投入效应、产业结构效应、用水技术投入效应以及总水资源消耗变化。本研究用于LMDI模型的基础数据如下所示。