From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival is reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum). Our work demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to new management insights.

气候变化避难所管理是当前生物多样性保护领域的常用推荐策略。然而，当前鲜有研究能将避难所科学从模型构建阶段推进至实际管理环节。本文呈现两项案例研究，实现了从模型构建到模型验证与管理实践的跨越。在第一项案例研究中，我们以美国缅因州阿卡迪亚国家公园内的两种植物——三齿委陵菜（three-toothed cinquefoil，学名*Sibbaldia tridentata*）与黑岩高兰（black crowberry，学名*Empetrum nigrum*）为研究对象，构建其气候避难所模型，并通过温室实验、同质园实验与参与式科学研究对模型输出结果开展评估。研究结果显示，正如模型预测那般，升温环境会抑制三齿委陵菜的生长与存活。不过，土壤湿度、盐度等其他变量，或许也会对这两种植物避难所的模型构建与管理工作产生重要影响。美国国家公园管理局工作人员及其合作方已将该两种植物的修复工作定向开展于避难所区域，同时也在探索其他适应性管理策略。在第二项案例研究中，我们发现，美国东北部国家公园现有的栖息地修复优先级制定流程，极少会将两种指示物种——杰斐逊钝口螈（Jefferson salamander，学名*Ambystoma jeffersonianum*）与草蜢鹀（grasshopper sparrow，学名*Ammodramus savannarum*）的气候避难所纳入考量范围。本研究表明，脱离模型构建阶段、推进至验证与管理环节，能够优化模型并催生全新的管理认知。