Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

本研究针对无既往疫情报告的人群，基于新增上报的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)死亡病例，估算该人群中的新冠感染病例总数。研究结果显示，当某人群出现首例新冠死亡病例时，该群体中实际已存在数百至数千例感染病例。这意味着在此时间节点通过接触者追踪实施疫情管控将极具挑战性，因此需考虑采用其他疫情应对策略。本研究提出的估算方法已集成至一款公开可用、用户友好的在线工具中。