Wheat crop responds to climate change in rainfed areas of District Mansehra, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa- An Econometric analysis

Agriculture in many ways is affected by climate change and has impact for productivity of crops particularly in rainfed areas. Climate change related research remained a poorly investigated area in KP and instant study filled that gap by investigating impacts of change in climate on farm productivity. The secondary data, spread over 30 years from 1984 to 2013 pertaining to temperature, precipitation, area under cultivation and yield of crops was collected. Analytical models used are ARDL Model. The results pertaining to impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat yield suggest long run relationship among the variables. Temperature is positively and significantly related in Mansehra. The precipitation is positively and significantly related. Short run relationship implies that around 100% deviations from long-term equilibrium are adjusted every year in case of Mansehra. The results wheat areas suggest long run relationship among the variables based on F Statistics value. Both temperature and precipitation are positively and significantly related to the area under wheat in the long run in case of Mansehra. Based on objectives of the research study and field findings recommendations offered include; farmers awareness drive, policies to promote adaptation measures, enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity to strengthen local resilience, participation of farming community in formulation of policies, making meteorological information available to farmers, Design research plans to evolve crops varieties addressing changing climatic challenges, construct water harvesting structures for high efficiency irrigation and further research to estimate range of temperature and precipitation within which crops under study perform better.

气候变化在诸多维度对农业产生深刻影响，尤其会对雨养农业区的作物生产力造成显著冲击。此前，气候变化相关研究在开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省（KP）仍属薄弱研究领域，本研究恰好填补了这一空白，聚焦气候变化对农业生产力的影响展开调研。研究收集了1984年至2013年共计30年的二手数据，涵盖气温、降水量、作物种植面积与作物产量等相关指标。本次研究采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型开展实证分析。针对气温与降水量对小麦产量的影响分析结果显示，各变量间存在长期均衡关系。在曼塞赫拉（Mansehra）地区，气温与小麦产量呈显著正相关关系，降水量同样与小麦产量呈显著正相关关系。短期动态关系表明，若以曼塞赫拉地区为研究样本，每年约有100%的长期均衡偏差得到修正。针对小麦种植面积的分析结果基于F统计量值得出，各变量间同样存在长期均衡关系。在曼塞赫拉地区，长期维度下气温与降水量均与小麦种植面积呈显著正相关关系。基于本次研究的目标与实地调研结果，研究提出如下建议：开展农民认知提升宣传行动，出台推广气候适应措施的相关政策，提升农户的气候适应能力以强化本地气候韧性；鼓励农业从业者参与政策制定过程，及时向农户推送气象信息；制定研发计划，培育可应对气候变化挑战的作物新品种；建设高效灌溉集水设施；并开展进一步研究，以明确本次研究涉及作物的最优适宜气温与降水量区间。