Has positional economic voting taken root in Eastern Europe?

In recent years scholars started exploring new dimensions of the economic vote: patrimony (asset ownership) and positional economic voting. Mushrooming literature in this field finds evidence that both of these dimensions make important contributions to the explanation of voters’ choices. This empirical confirmation may carry a strong “advance democracy bias.” Previous scholarly work has only scratched the surface of studying positional economic voting in other countries. We know little about positional economic voting in Eastern Europe (EE). Whether and to what extent this is happening, remains an open question that needs an empirical investigation. While we remain agnostic, at the outset of the study, we formulate a working hypothesis in favor of positional economic voting. By combining data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS) and five modules of Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), the study tests these propositions and seeks to identify which factors contribute to positional voting in the region. We found evidence that some positional voting is happening in EE. This occurs significantly more often for individuals who follow politics. Additionally, the rate of unemployment and fragmentation of the party system contribute to more positional voting in EE.近年来，学者们开始探索经济投票（economic vote）的两大新维度：资产所有权（patrimony，asset ownership）与位置型经济投票（positional economic voting）。该领域日益涌现的研究文献表明，这两大维度均对选民投票选择的解释具有重要贡献。但这类实证验证或存在显著的"民主推进偏向"。既往学术研究仅对其他国家的位置型经济投票进行了初步探索，我们对东欧（Eastern Europe, EE）的位置型经济投票情况仍知之甚少。这种投票模式是否存在、以及其存在程度如何，仍是一个亟待实证研究的开放性问题。尽管本研究初始阶段秉持不可知论立场，但我们仍提出了支持位置型经济投票存在的工作假说。本研究整合了欧洲社会调查（European Social Survey, ESS）九轮数据与选举制度比较研究（Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, CSES）五模块数据，对上述命题进行了检验，并试图厘清该地区位置型投票的影响因素。研究结果表明，东欧地区确实存在一定程度的位置型投票，这类投票行为在关注政治的个体中发生频率显著更高。此外，失业率与政党体系碎片化程度均会推高东欧地区的位置型投票发生率。