China-ASEAN trade potential index 2012–2021.

Objective
The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing the development of China-ASEAN trade- from the total economic volume of both sides, distance, the population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of a free trade area, and the signing of the Belt and Road initiative, resource endowment per capita, the exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the land area of ASEAN countries—to develop a conceptual framework for China-ASEAN trade potential.
Study design
This study uses panel data from 2001 to 2021 that is evenly distributed among 10 ASEAN countries to serve as the dataset. Firstly, the unit roots are checked and the cointegration relationships are examined, focusing on the heterogeneity test. Based on the classical trade gravity model, the innovative trade gravity model with key influencing factors is constructed. On the basis of the classical trade gravity model, an innovative trade gravity model of key influencing factors is constructed. The trade potential model is used to calculate the direct trade potential coefficient between China and ASEAN countries, which points out the direction for the sustainability of bilateral trade.
Results
This study finds that among the factors affecting China-ASEAN bilateral trade, the total economic output of both sides, distance, population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of the FTA, and the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative all have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Three influencing factors, namely per capita resource endowment, exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the size of ASEAN countries, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, but to a lesser extent. The trade potential between China and Vietnam falls into the category of potential re-modelling, indicating that both sides are currently utilizing their trade potential to the greatest extent possible, that trade growth space is limited, and that new trade opportunities must be discovered. The trade potential index between China and nine ASEAN countries, excluding Vietnam, is in the potential-exploiting category, indicating that the potential has not been fully utilized by both sides and that there is still room for growth in the scale of trade between the two countries.
Conclusion
With the shift of the world’s economic center of gravity in the direction of Asia following COVID-19, China and ASEAN countries should seize the opportunity to strengthen their comprehensive strength and economic aggregates and further develop China’s constructive role in the regional organization. The signing of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a free trade zone has had a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade. Propose that: positive trade factors should continue to be strengthened, trade barriers should be removed, and new dynamics of bilateral trade growth should be enhanced.

研究目标
本研究旨在识别影响中国-东盟双边贸易发展的因素——涵盖双方经济总量、地理距离、东盟各国人口规模、自由贸易区（Free Trade Area, FTA）建设、“一带一路”倡议（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）签署、人均资源禀赋、人民币与东盟国家汇率以及东盟国家国土面积——并构建中国-东盟贸易潜力（Trade Potential）的概念框架。
研究设计
本研究采用2001至2021年覆盖东盟10国的平衡面板数据（Panel Data）作为数据集。首先进行单位根检验（Unit Root Test）与协整关系（Cointegration Relationship）分析，重点开展异质性检验（Heterogeneity Test）。基于经典贸易引力模型（Trade Gravity Model），构建纳入关键影响因素的创新型贸易引力模型。随后利用贸易潜力模型测算中国与东盟各国的双边贸易潜力系数，为双边贸易可持续发展指明方向。
研究结果
本研究发现，在影响中国-东盟双边贸易的因素中，双方经济总量、地理距离、东盟各国人口规模、自由贸易区建设以及“一带一路”倡议签署均对双边贸易产生正向影响。人均资源禀赋、人民币与东盟国家汇率、东盟各国国土面积三项因素对双边贸易产生负向影响，但影响程度相对较弱。中国与越南的贸易潜力属于“潜力再造型”类别，表明当前双方已最大限度挖掘现有贸易潜力，贸易增长空间有限，需探寻新的贸易机遇。中国与除越南外的其余9个东盟国家的贸易潜力指数均属于“潜力挖掘型”类别，表明双方尚未充分利用贸易潜力，两国贸易规模仍存在增长空间。
研究结论
新冠疫情（Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19）后，全球经济重心向亚洲转移，中国与东盟各国应抓住这一机遇，提升综合实力与经济总量，进一步发挥中国在区域组织中的建设性作用。“一带一路”倡议签署与自由贸易区建设对双边贸易发展具有积极推动作用。研究建议：应持续强化正向贸易因素，破除贸易壁垒，激发双边贸易增长的新动能。