Unit root results.

This paper quantifies the economic impact of regime changes and macroeconomic indicators on debt stress in Zambia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test. A 1% short run increase in gross domestic products (GDP) increases debt stress by 3.16% and in the subsequent year lowers it by 7.21%; in the long-run the 1% GDP increases lowers debt stress by 22%. In the long-run, a 1% rise in inflation and the lending rate negatively and positively impacted debt stress levels by -1.52% and 3.90%, respectively. Short-run shocks culminated regime change had short-run adverse impact on debt stress by 3.45% in one year and in the subsequent year by -10.35%, with the variables adjusting to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 71.5%. This is the first paper to quantify the empirical effect of macroeconomic indicators and change in Presidents on debt stress, especially in Africa were the problem of the debt trap is perpetuated. The results from the study implies that to deescalate the impact of debt stress on the economy, the electorate should vote in governments that will not fall short on growth driven macroeconomic policies, making it possible for economic sustainability to prevail; and paper seeks to promote good governance and good economic policies as a premise for sustained macroeconomic stability and development.

本文采用自回归分布滞后（Autoregressive Distributed Lag，ARDL）边限检验法，量化了赞比亚政权更迭与宏观经济指标对债务压力的经济影响。短期国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Products，GDP）每提升1%，会使债务压力上升3.16%，并于下一年度降低7.21%；长期来看，国内生产总值每提升1%，可使债务压力下降22%。长期而言，通货膨胀率每上升1%会对债务压力产生1.52%的负向影响，而贷款利率每上升1%则会带来3.90%的正向影响。由政权更迭引发的短期冲击，会在冲击发生当年对债务压力造成3.45%的负面影响，并于次年产生-10.35%的影响；各变量向长期均衡收敛的调整速度为71.5%。本文是首项量化宏观经济指标与总统更迭对债务压力实证影响的研究，尤其聚焦于债务陷阱问题长期存续的非洲地区。本研究结果表明，若要缓解债务压力对经济的负面影响，选民应投票支持推行以增长为导向的宏观经济政策的政府，以此实现经济可持续发展；本文旨在倡导良政与优质经济政策，将其作为实现宏观经济持续稳定与发展的前提。