Replication data for: Persuasion: A Case Study of Papal Influences on Fertility-Related Beliefs and Behavior

We study the persuasive impacts of non-informative communication on the short-run beliefs and long-run behavior of individuals. We do so in the context of the Papal visit to Brazil in October 1991, in which persuasive messages related to fertility were salient in Papal speeches during the visit. We use individual's exposure to such messages to measure how persuasion shifts short-run beliefs such as intentions to contracept and long-term fertility outcomes such as the timing and total number of births. To measure the short-run causal impact of persuasion, we exploit the fact the Brazil 1991 DHS was fielded in the weeks before, during, and after the Papal visit. We use this fortuitous timing to identify that persuasion significantly reduced individual intentions to contracept by more than 40 percent relative to pre-visit levels, and increased the frequency of unprotected sex by 30 percent. We measure the long-run causal impacts of persuasion on fertility outcomes using later DHS surveys to conduct an event study analysis on births in a five-year window on either side of the 1991 Papal visit. Estimating a hazard model of fertility, we find a significant change in births 9 months post-visit, corresponding to a 1.6 percent increase in the aggregate birth cohort. Our final set of results examine the very long-run impact of persuasion and document the impacts to be on the timing of births rather than on total fertility.

本研究探讨非信息性沟通对个体短期信念与长期行为的说服效应。研究依托1991年10月教皇访问巴西这一事件展开，此访期间教皇的演讲中包含与生育相关的核心说服性讯息。本研究通过个体接触此类讯息的情况，量化说服效应对短期信念（如避孕意愿）与长期生育结果（如生育时机与总生育数）的影响。为测算说服效应的短期因果影响，本研究利用了1991年巴西人口与健康调查（Demographic and Health Surveys）的调研时段恰好覆盖教皇访巴前后数周这一外生条件。借助这一巧合的调研窗口，本研究识别得到：相较于访前水平，说服效应使个体避孕意愿显著降低逾40%，同时无保护性行为频率提升30%。为测算说服效应对生育结果的长期因果影响，本研究依托后续开展的人口与健康调查（DHS）调研，针对1991年教皇访巴前后五年窗口期内的生育事件展开事件研究分析。通过构建生育风险模型进行估计，本研究发现访后9个月的生育数量出现显著变化，对应总人口出生队列规模提升1.6%。本研究的最终一组结果聚焦说服效应的超长期影响，证实该效应仅作用于生育时机，而非总生育水平。