Data from: Social Norms and Fertility by Myong Park and Yi

We document three stylized facts on marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies: (i) their marriage rates are among the highest in the world, but their total fertility is the lowest; (ii) although they have the lowest total fertility, almost all married women have at least one child; and (iii) almost no single women have any children. As these societies have been influenced by Confucianism over millennia, marriage and fertility decisions are potentially shaped by two social norms: the unequal gender division of childcare and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We present a model incorporating the two social norms, and structurally estimate it using data from South Korea. We find that the social norm of unequal gender division of childcare plays a significant role in the low fertility rates, especially for highly educated women. However, the social stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births has modest effects on the childlessness rate for single women. Our results show that the tension between the persistent gender ideology and the rapid socioeconomic development is the main driving force behind the unique marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies.

本文梳理了东亚社会婚姻与生育模式的三大典型化事实：其一，该地区婚姻率位居全球前列，但总和生育率却处于全球最低水平；其二，尽管总和生育率全球最低，但几乎所有已婚女性都至少生育一子；其三，几乎无未婚女性生育子女。鉴于这些社会数千年来深受儒家文化影响，婚姻与生育决策或受两大社会规范塑造：一是育儿责任的性别分工失衡，二是非婚生育所附带的社会污名。本研究构建了纳入这两大社会规范的理论模型，并利用韩国数据对其进行结构估计。研究发现，育儿责任性别分工失衡的社会规范对低生育率具有显著影响，尤其对高学历女性群体更为突出。不过，非婚生育的社会污名对未婚女性的无孩率仅产生有限影响。研究结果表明，根深蒂固的性别观念与快速的社会经济发展之间的张力，正是东亚社会独特婚姻与生育模式形成的核心驱动因素。