Climate Drivers on Malaria Transmission in Arunachal Pradesh, India

The present study was conducted during the years 2006 to 2012 and provides information on prevalence of malaria and its regulation with effect to various climatic factors in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, India. Correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling’s T2 statistics models are adopted to understand the effect of weather variables on malaria transmission. The epidemiological study shows that the prevalence of malaria is mostly caused by the parasite Plasmodium vivax followed by Plasmodium falciparum. It is noted that, the intensity of malaria cases declined gradually from the year 2006 to 2012. The transmission of malaria observed was more during the rainy season, as compared to summer and winter seasons. Further, the data analysis study with Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling’s T2 statistic has revealed that the climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall are the most influencing factors for the high rate of malaria transmission in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh.

本研究于2006至2012年间开展，涵盖印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦东桑县的疟疾流行特征，以及疟疾流行受各类气候因子影响的关联信息。本研究采用相关分析、主成分分析（Principal Component Analysis）与霍特林T²统计量（Hotelling’s T² statistics）模型，探究气象变量对疟疾传播的影响。流行病学分析结果显示，该地区疟疾流行主要由间日疟原虫（Plasmodium vivax）引发，其次为恶性疟原虫（Plasmodium falciparum）。研究同时发现，2006至2012年间，疟疾病例数呈逐步下降趋势。相较于夏冬两季，观测到疟疾传播在雨季更为活跃。进一步结合主成分分析与霍特林T²统计量开展的数据分析表明，气温与降雨等气候变量是影响阿鲁纳恰尔邦东桑县疟疾高传播率的最关键因素。