Soft Power, Hard Aspirations: the Shifting Role of Power in Brazilian Foreign Policy

Journalists and policy analysts have highlighted the emergence of Brazil as a regional power. However, little attention has been paid to its foreign policy strategies. Brazil's rise to prominence in world politics represents the historical culmination of a foreign policy featuring two main strategies – persuasion and consensus building – both of which emphasise the use of soft power. We analyse four current foreign policy initiatives: the campaign for a permanent seat on the UNSC; the development of a nuclear submarine; Brazil's leadership of the UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti; and government support for Brazilian multinationals. We suggest a growing tension between these initiatives and the two strategies identified above. These initiatives reflect the view current among some policymakers that if Brazil is to rise as a global power it must play by the rules of great power politics.

新闻从业者与政策分析师均已关注到巴西作为区域性大国的崛起。然而，学界对其外交战略的探讨却相对匮乏。巴西在全球政坛崭露头角，实则是其长期奉行两大核心外交战略的历史积淀：即说服与共识构建，二者均强调软实力的运用。本研究分析了巴西当前四项外交举措：争取联合国安全理事会（United Nations Security Council, UNSC）常任理事国席位的游说活动、核潜艇研发项目、巴西主导联合国海地维和任务，以及政府对巴西跨国企业的扶持政策。我们发现，上述举措与前述两大外交战略之间，正滋生出日益凸显的张力。这些举措折射出部分政策制定者的当下认知：即巴西若要成长为全球性大国，就必须遵循大国政治的博弈规则。