Replication Data for: More Turnover, Less Turnout? Domestic Migration and Political Participation Across Communities

Why do some areas experience lower voter turnout even under compulsory voting systems? This paper examines the impact of migration turnover—encompassing both in- and out-migration—on voter turnout across communities. While past research has focused on migrant/non-migrant differences or in-/out-migration separately, we propose that both migratory movements tend to decrease political participation due to increased transaction and social costs. Using surveys and a new panel dataset combining census and voting records from over 5,000 Brazilian municipalities, we identify a robust negative association between local migratory turnover and voter turnout. This relationship holds across various time frames, levels of aggregation, analytical approaches, and definitions of variables. Analyses using individual-level data further corroborate these results. Additional tests suggest social costs constitute a key mechanism deterring turnout. These findings highlight the need to consider the broader consequences of population mobility for democratic processes and representation, particularly in areas experiencing higher levels of turnover.

为何在强制投票制度下，部分地区的选民投票率仍处于较低水平？本文探讨了移民更替——涵盖迁入与迁出移民——对各社区选民投票率的影响。既往研究多单独关注移民与非移民的群体差异，或分别探讨迁入、迁出移民的影响，而本文提出，两类移民流动均会因交易成本与社会成本的上升，抑制政治参与。本文结合问卷调查数据，以及涵盖巴西5000余个市镇普查与投票记录的全新面板数据集，证实地方移民更替与选民投票率之间存在稳健的负相关关系。该关联在不同时间跨度、数据聚合层级、分析方法以及变量定义下均保持稳健。基于个体层面数据的分析进一步佐证了上述结论。额外的机制检验显示，社会成本是抑制选民投票率的核心路径。本研究结果凸显出，在人口更替水平较高的地区，需重视人口流动对民主进程与政治代表的更广泛影响。