CCSRNIES_SRES_B1_PRECC

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Third Assessment Report data sets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO und UNEP
to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, relevant for the
understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and option for adaption and migration.
Projection of future trends for a number of key variables are provided through this
section of the DDC (http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html).
This information contained in either IS92 emission scenarios (IPCC 1992), the Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000, SRES) or published model studies using data from
these scenarios.
Six alternative IPCC scenarios (IS92a to f) were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report
to the IPCC Assessment. These scenarios embodied a wide array of assumption affecting how
future greenhouse gas emissions might evolve in the absence of climate policies beyond
those already adoped.
The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments
in the global enviromental with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases
and aerosol precursor emission.
A set of four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2) have been developed that each of this
storylines describes one possible demographic, polito-economic, societal and technological
future. Model experiments, also using different forcing scenarios, were calculated
at other modeling centres.
Emissions Scenarios. 2000 ,Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570
Summary: The SRES data sets were published by the IPCC in 2000 and classified
into four different scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2).
SRES_B1 storyline describes a global population similar to
A1 but with rapid change in economic structure toward a
service and information economy, with reduction in material
intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient
technologies.
The model developed by the Center for Climate System Resaerch/
National Institute for Enviromental Studies in Tokyo consists
of the atmospheric component which has vertical resolution of
20 levels and the triangular truncation at wavenumber 21 (T21).
The ocean model has 17 vertical levels and the same resolution.
CCSRNIES_AGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html )
CCSRNIES_OGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html )
The changes of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and
sulphur dioxide are prescribed according to the above mentioned
scenario.

项目：政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）数据分发中心：第三次评估报告数据集

世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization, WMO）与联合国环境规划署（United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP）联合设立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC），其宗旨是评估与理解气候变化、其潜在影响以及适应与减缓举措相关的科学、技术及社会经济信息。本数据分发中心的该板块（http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html）提供了若干关键变量的未来趋势预测结果。

相关信息源自IS92排放情景（IPCC 1992）、《排放情景特别报告》（Special Report on Emission Scenarios, IPCC 2000, SRES），或是基于上述情景数据开展的已发表模式研究。IPCC在1992年评估报告补充报告中发布了6种备选情景（IS92a至IS92f）。这些情景涵盖了一系列假设条件，用以描述在已实施气候政策之外无额外气候干预的情况下，未来温室气体排放的演化路径。

SRES情景的构建旨在探究全球环境的未来发展态势，重点关注温室气体和气溶胶前体物的排放情况。研究团队构建了4组情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2），每组情景均对应一种可能的人口、政治经济、社会及技术发展路径。其他模式研究中心也基于不同的强迫情景开展了模式试验。

《排放情景》，2000年，政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告，Nebojsa Nakicenovic与Rob Swart（主编），英国剑桥大学出版社，第570页。

【数据集概况】SRES数据集由IPCC于2000年发布，共分为4组情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2）。SRES_B1情景设定的全球人口规模与A1情景相近，但经济结构快速向服务型与信息型经济转型，物质强度持续降低，并广泛应用清洁且资源高效的技术。

由东京气候系统研究中心与国立环境研究所开发的模式包含大气分量与海洋分量：大气分量的垂直分辨率为20层，采用波数21的三角形截断（T21）；海洋分量的垂直分辨率为17层，与大气分量保持一致。该大气模式记为CCSRNIES_AGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html），海洋模式记为CCSRNIES_OGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html）。

模式中二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、一氧化二氮（N₂O）及二氧化硫的人为排放变化均依据前述情景设定。