Baseline evaluation of the impact of e-verification on counterfeit agricultural inputs and technology adoption in Uganda

In Uganda, use of high-quality agricultural inputs like hybrid seed, agrochemicals, and fertilizer is extremely low. This depresses farm incomes and contributes to low agricultural productivity that continues to be hampered by poor agronomic practices, low quality germplasm, declining soil fertility, and losses due to pests, disease, and postharvest handling practices. Low levels of agricultural technology adoption have been compounded by a lack of farmer trust in the current inputs supply system, which has been plagues by counterfeiting. Counterfeit products range from benign fake or adulterated materials to banned substances that are harmful to crops and human health. Counterfeit agricultural inputs directly reduce productivity and, together with the perception of widespread counterfeiting, reduce demand for high-quality inputs. This lowers input prices and reduces profits for producers of genuine products, causing a form of \"adverse selection\" in which counterfeit products push high-quality genuine products out of the market. In the face of this problem, United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through Feed the Future (FTF) initiative is supporting the development of a program for input quality assurance called e-verification (EV). E-verification involves labeling genuine agricultural inputs with a scratch-off label that provides an authentication code that can be used to confirm that the labeled product is genuine. Given the potential importance of this initiative, USAID is funding an independent impact evaluation of the effectiveness of the EV system at improving adoption of high-quality inputs and reducing the prevalence of counterfeiting. The impact evaluation will estimate the impact of the e-verification scheme on each of these outcomes and will examine how the e-verification project achieved it results.To undertake the impact evaluation, IFPRI conducted a baseline survey of communities, shops, and households. This survey resulted in the dataset contained in this study. The team identified ten major maize growing regions, termed market hubs, which covered districts (and surroundings) of Hoima, Iganga, Kasese, Kiboga, Luwero, Masaka, Masindi, Mbale, Mityana, and Mubende. Within these market hubs, the study sampled 120 market locations (trading centres or collections of shops) from which households source agricultural inputs. Within each market location, a matched pair of two villages was sampled. The baseline survey was targeted towards ten households in each of the 240 villages (LC1s). The sample ultimately resulted in 2,378 households being surveyed. The study is designed to measure the impact of e-verification interventions on glyphosate herbicide, hybrid maize seed and inorganic fertilizer. Glyphosate herbicide is expected to be the first input released through the e-verification scheme.

在乌干达，杂交种子、农用化学品、化肥等优质农业投入品的使用比例极低。这不仅抑制了农场收益增长，还拖累了农业生产力水平——而这种低迷又受到农艺措施欠规范、种质质量低劣、土壤肥力衰退，以及病虫害、产后处理不当造成的损失的进一步制约。
农业技术采用率偏低的困境，又因农户对当前投入品供应体系信任不足而雪上加霜：该体系饱受假冒伪劣产品侵扰。假冒产品品类繁杂，从无害的仿冒品或掺假物料，到危害作物生长与人体健康的违禁物质一应俱全。假冒农业投入品不仅会直接降低生产效率，加之社会普遍存在的假冒产品泛滥认知，还会抑制优质投入品的市场需求。这不仅拉低了投入品整体价格，还挤压了正品生产商的利润空间，进而引发一类“逆向选择（adverse selection）”现象：假冒产品将优质正品逐出市场。
面对这一难题，美国国际开发署（United States Agency for International Development, USAID）通过“未来粮食保障”（Feed the Future, FTF）倡议，支持开发了一项名为电子核验（e-verification, EV）的投入品质量保障项目。电子核验方案通过为正品农业投入品粘贴刮刮式防伪标签，附带可用于验证产品真伪的认证码，以此确认标注产品为正品。
鉴于该举措的潜在重要性，美国国际开发署资助开展了一项独立影响评估，以检验电子核验系统在提升优质投入品采用率、降低假冒产品盛行率方面的实际成效。本次影响评估将量化电子核验方案对上述两类目标的影响，并探究该项目达成预期成果的具体路径。
为开展本次影响评估，国际粮食政策研究所（IFPRI）对社区、农资商铺及农户开展了基线调查，本研究所用数据集即来源于此次调研。研究团队选取了乌干达十大玉米主产区（称为“市场枢纽”），覆盖霍伊马（Hoima）、伊甘加（Iganga）、卡塞塞（Kasese）、基博加（Kiboga）、卢韦罗（Luwero）、马萨卡（Masaka）、马辛迪（Masindi）、姆巴莱（Mbale）、米蒂亚纳（Mityana）及穆本德（Mubende）的区县及周边区域。在上述市场枢纽内，研究人员抽样选取了120个市场点位（交易中心或商铺集群），这些点位是农户采购农业投入品的主要渠道。在每个市场点位内，再抽样选取一对匹配村庄。本次基线调查针对240个村庄（LC1）中的各10户农户开展，最终完成了2378户农户的调研。
本研究旨在评估电子核验干预措施对草甘膦除草剂、杂交玉米种子及无机化肥的应用影响。其中，草甘膦除草剂预计将是首个通过电子核验系统推广的农业投入品。