The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

The ongoing changes to climate challenge the conservation of forest biodiversity. Yet, in thermally limited systems, such as temperate forests, not all species groups might be affected negatively. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the disturbance regime have the potential to mitigate climate-related impacts on forest species. Here, we (i) investigated the potential long-term effect of climate change on biodiversity in a mountain forest landscape, (ii) assessed the effects of different disturbance frequencies, severities and sizes and (iii) identified biodiversity hotspots at the landscape scale to facilitate conservation management.
We employed the model iLand to dynamically simulate the tree vegetation on 13 865 ha of the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria over 1000 years, and investigated 36 unique combinations of different disturbance and climate scenarios. We used simulated changes in tree cover and composition as well as projected temperature and precipitation to predict change...

持续演变的气候变化正对森林生物多样性保护构成严峻挑战。然而在受温度限制的生态系统（如温带森林）中，并非所有物种类群都会遭受负面影响。此外，干扰格局的同步变化有望缓解气候变化对森林物种造成的影响。本研究中，我们开展了三项工作：一是探究气候变化对山地森林景观生物多样性的潜在长期影响；二是评估不同干扰频率、强度与规模的效应；三是识别景观尺度下的生物多样性热点区域，以助力保护管理实践。
我们采用iLand模型（iLand），对奥地利卡尔卡彭国家公园（Kalkalpen National Park）13865公顷（ha）的林地开展了长达1000年的林木植被动态模拟，并对36种独特的干扰与气候情景组合展开了系统研究。我们借助模拟得到的林木覆盖度与组成变化数据，以及预测得到的气温与降水数据，对相关变化趋势展开预测……