Analyzing the infertility burden of polycystic ovarian syndrome in China: A comprehensive age-period-cohort analysis with future burden prediction (1990–2030)

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is a common but complex endocrine disorder widely linked to infertility and miscarriage. This study assessed the correlation between PCOS and infertility. Using the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we conducted an in-depth assessment of the disease burden attributed to PCOS in China. This analysis was performed using the joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Between 1990–2019, an upward trend was observed in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility in China. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed an increasing trend in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility burden indicators as well as the average annual percentage change and annual percentage change across all age groups in China. In terms of the cohort effect, the period rate ratios associated with the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related infertility increased steadily over time. The ARIMA model predicted a relatively swift upward trend in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related infertility in China from 2020–2030. The age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility in China has increased between 1990–2019. The ARIMA model predicted that the age-standardized prevalence of this disease may continue to increase over the next decade. This study can increase the public’s attention, improve women’s health awareness, and have a certain significance for reducing female infertility related to PCOS.

多囊卵巢综合征（Polycystic ovarian syndrome, PCOS）是一种常见却复杂的内分泌紊乱疾病，与不孕不育及流产密切相关。本研究针对多囊卵巢综合征与不孕不育的相关性展开评估，并借助2019年全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease）数据库的最新数据，对中国境内多囊卵巢综合征所致的疾病负担开展了深入分析。本次分析采用连接点回归、年龄-时期-队列以及自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）三种模型进行。1990年至2019年间，中国多囊卵巢综合征相关性女性不孕的年龄标化患病率呈上升趋势。连接点回归分析结果显示，中国各年龄组多囊卵巢综合征相关性女性不孕负担指标的年龄标化患病率，以及年均百分比变化与年度百分比变化均呈上升态势。就队列效应而言，与多囊卵巢综合征相关性不孕年龄标化患病率相关的时期率比随时间推移稳步升高。ARIMA模型预测，2020年至2030年间，中国多囊卵巢综合征相关性不孕的年龄标化患病率将呈现较为迅猛的上升趋势。1990年至2019年，中国多囊卵巢综合征相关性女性不孕的年龄标化患病率持续攀升。ARIMA模型预测，未来十年内该疾病的年龄标化患病率仍将持续升高。本研究有助于提升公众对该疾病的关注度，增强女性健康认知水平，对降低多囊卵巢综合征相关性女性不孕具有一定的实践价值。