Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Abstract: Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy- and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

摘要：受农林产品需求驱动的大规模人为活动，已造成全球生物多样性大幅锐减，并使生态系统服务供给发生显著改变。若全球未来的发展进程仍未充分考量自然对维系人类生计的重要作用，上述趋势预计将持续蔓延。情景与模型可作为重要工具，助力政策制定者与决策者预判其决策的影响；因此，提升此类情景与模型的构建能力至关重要。然而，当前聚焦该领域的研究生培训项目仍较为稀缺。在此，我们对面向生物多样性与生态系统服务情景建模、旨在支撑人类福祉的圣保罗高级科学学院（São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being，SPSAS Scenarios）的实践经验进行介绍与反思。此外，我们还介绍了由SPSAS Scenarios系列活动催生的《Biota Neotropica》特刊。本次活动共产出九项案例研究，覆盖范围涵盖多样生态系统、当前变化驱动因子与预期趋势，同时围绕应用新近提出的自然未来框架（Nature Futures Framework）构建替代性积极情景开展了相关工作。我们强调，需进一步提升情景构建与建模能力，以弥补当前在面向生物多样性与生态系统服务、产出契合政策需求的情景与模型方面存在的部分短板。