Table1_The influence of digital development on China’s carbon emission efficiency: In the view of economic and environmental balance.XLSX

Introduction: With the worsening global climate problem, carbon peak and carbon neutrality have become crucial objects to realize sustainable development. Regarded as the engine of economic development in the new era, it is worth exploring whether digitalization could contribute to carbon goals. Meanwhile, carbon reduction should not be advocated at the cost of economic recession and contains the risk of reversal when the economy renews in growth.
Material and Methods: This paper evaluates carbon efficiency using the total factor non-radial directional distance function, which reflects the economic performance and environmental performance of 246 China’s prefecture-level cities during 2011–2019. Fixed effect and mediation effect models are used to explore the non-linear relationship and transmission channels between digital development and carbon efficiency.
Results: It is found that: 1) digital development would hinder carbon efficiency first and then promote it after reaching a certain level; 2) digital development could indirectly affect carbon efficiency through industrial agglomeration, industrial structure upgrading, and industrial electricity productivity in non-linear ways. 3) Heterogeneity exists in the relationship between digital development and carbon efficiency due to different regions and development types.
Discussion: Due to digital development itself having high carbon-negative externalities at the initial stage, its impact on carbon efficiency is complex and non-liner even when decomposing through multiple channels. A well-structured development strategy is needed during the digitalization process in order to prompt carbon efficiency.

引言：随着全球气候问题日益严峻，碳达峰（carbon peak）与碳中和（carbon neutrality）已成为实现可持续发展的核心目标。作为新时代经济发展的核心引擎，数字化能否助力碳目标的实现值得探索。同时，减碳不应以经济衰退为代价，且在经济重回增长轨道时存在反弹风险。
材料与方法：本文采用全要素非径向方向距离函数（total factor non-radial directional distance function）测算碳效率，以此刻画2011-2019年中国246个地级市的经济绩效与环境绩效。本文通过固定效应模型与中介效应模型，探究数字化发展与碳效率之间的非线性关系及传导路径。
结果：研究结果表明：1）数字化发展对碳效率的影响呈现先抑制后促进的特征；2）数字化发展可通过产业集聚、产业结构升级以及工业电力生产率三条路径，以非线性方式间接作用于碳效率；3）由于区域与发展类型存在差异，数字化发展与碳效率的关系存在异质性。
讨论：由于数字化发展在初期阶段存在较强的碳负外部性，即便通过多渠道拆解分析，其对碳效率的影响仍呈现复杂的非线性特征。因此，在数字化转型过程中需制定合理的发展策略，以提升碳效率。