Future breeding and foraging sites of a southern edge population of the locally endangered Black Guillemot <i>Cepphus grylle</i>

<b>Capsule:</b> One of the southernmost populations of the Black Guillemot <i>Cepphus grylle</i> is currently endangered, and the risk may be exacerbated by climate change. <b>Aims:</b> We evaluated the future vulnerability of the Black Guillemot by predicting the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of its breeding and foraging range in the Baltic Sea. <b>Methods:</b> We used MaxEnt, a species distribution modelling technique, to predict the current and future breeding grounds and foraging sites. <b>Results:</b> We found that although the foraging range is expected to increase in the southern Baltic Sea in future, these areas will no longer be suitable as breeding grounds due to a changing climate, creating a spatial mismatch. <b>Conclusion:</b> Our predictions indicate where threats to the species may be most severe and can be used to guide conservation planning. We advocate conservation measures which integrate potential future threats and focus on breeding sites across the current and future potential geographic range of the Black Guillemot.**研究概况**：黑海鸠（*Cepphus grylle*）最南端的种群之一目前正处于濒危状态，气候变化或进一步加剧其生存风险。**研究目标**：本研究通过预测气候变化对波罗的海区域内黑海鸠繁殖与觅食分布范围的影响，评估该物种的未来生存脆弱性。**研究方法**：本研究采用物种分布建模技术最大熵模型（MaxEnt），预测该物种当前及未来的繁殖地与觅食位点分布。**研究结果**：结果显示，尽管未来波罗的海南部的黑海鸠觅食范围有望扩大，但受气候变化影响，这些区域将不再适宜作为繁殖栖息地，由此产生空间错配问题。**研究结论**：本研究的预测结果可明确该物种面临的最严重威胁区域，能够为保护规划提供科学指引。我们倡导制定兼顾潜在未来威胁的保护措施，并重点关注黑海鸠当前及未来潜在分布范围内的繁殖栖息地。