Drought-Impact Prediction Benchmark: county-level insured drought loss for the US Corn Belt

A prediction-ready, impact-labeled drought benchmark: predict realized insured drought loss (USDA RMA Cause of Loss) from within-season climate/vegetation anomalies. v0 covers corn across the 6-state US Corn Belt (IL/IN/IA/MN/MO/NE), 2000-2023 (13,895 county-years, 587 counties, 18.5% positive). Distinct from drought-severity (USDM) and crop-yield benchmarks. Includes official temporal / leave-one-state-out spatial / leave-one-year-out splits and a baseline leaderboard. Built and reproducible with the open-source terraflow.drought pipeline.v0.2 — true total-insured-liability denominator (RMA Summary-of-Business) + insured_acre_fraction coverage column (NASS). Positive rate 6.0%; best temporal ROC-AUC 0.95; spatial LOSO 0.91.