Analyzing evolutionary game theory in epidemic management: A study on social distancing and mask-wearing strategies

When combating a respiratory disease outbreak, the effectiveness of protective measures hinges on spontaneous shifts in human behavior driven by risk perception and careful cost-benefit analysis. In this study, a novel concept has been introduced, integrating social distancing and mask-wearing strategies into a unified framework that combines evolutionary game theory with an extended classical epidemic model. To yield deeper insights into human decision-making during COVID-19, we integrate both the prevalent dilemma faced at the epidemic’s onset regarding mask-wearing and social distancing practices, along with a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. We explore the often-overlooked aspect of effective mask adoption among undetected infectious individuals to evaluate the significance of source control. Both undetected and detected infectious individuals can significantly reduce the risk of infection for non-masked individuals by wearing effective facemasks. When the economic burden of mask usage becomes unsustainable in the community, promoting affordable and safe social distancing becomes vital in slowing the epidemic’s progress, allowing crucial time for public health preparedness. In contrast, as the indirect expenses associated with safe social distancing escalate, affordable and effective facemask usage could be a feasible option. In our analysis, it was observed that during periods of heightened infection risk, there is a noticeable surge in public interest and dedication to complying with social distancing measures. However, its impact diminishes beyond a certain disease transmission threshold, as this strategy cannot completely eliminate the disease burden in the community. Maximum public compliance with social distancing and mask-wearing strategies can be achieved when they are affordable for the community. While implementing both strategies together could ultimately reduce the epidemic’s effective reproduction number (Re) to below one, countries still have the flexibility to prioritize either of them, easing strictness on the other based on their socio-economic conditions.

在应对呼吸道传染病暴发时，防护措施的有效性取决于由风险感知与审慎成本收益分析驱动的人类行为自发转变。本研究提出一种全新概念，将社交距离（social distancing）与戴口罩策略整合至统一框架中，该框架结合了进化博弈论（evolutionary game theory）与扩展版经典流行病模型。为更深入解析新冠疫情期间人类的决策行为，本研究整合了疫情暴发初期在戴口罩与社交距离措施方面普遍存在的两难困境，同时纳入了全面的成本收益分析。我们聚焦于未被发现的感染者中有效佩戴口罩这一常被忽视的维度，以评估传染源管控的重要性。无论是未被发现还是已被发现的感染者，通过佩戴合格口罩，均可显著降低未佩戴口罩人群的感染风险。当社区内佩戴口罩的经济负担难以为继时，推广可负担且安全的社交距离措施，对于减缓疫情传播、为公共卫生防控准备争取关键时间至关重要。反之，当安全社交距离相关的间接成本攀升时，可负担且有效的口罩佩戴方案便成为可行选择。本研究分析发现，在感染风险升高的阶段，公众对社交距离措施的关注与遵从意愿会显著上升。但当疫情传播超过特定阈值后，该策略的影响会逐渐减弱，因其无法彻底消除社区内的疾病负担。当社交距离与戴口罩措施在社区内具备可负担性时，公众对二者的遵从度可达到最高水平。尽管同时实施这两项策略最终可将疫情的有效再生数（effective reproduction number, Re）降至1以下，但各国仍可根据自身社会经济状况，灵活选择优先推行其中一项策略，并适度放宽另一项的管控强度。