Bringing Home the Bacon

Which electorates receive targeted funding, and does targeted funding swing votes? To answer these questions, I analyze four discretionary programs funded by the Australian federal government during the 2001-2004 election cycle. Controlling for relevant demographic characteristics of the electorate, those electorates held by the governing coalition received a larger share of discretionary funding, and a larger number of program grants. Among government seats, funding does not appear to have been directed towards those that were more marginal. More discretionary funding – particularly on road-building – was associated with a larger swing towards the government in the 2004 election.

哪些选区能够获得定向拨款，以及定向拨款是否会引发选票摇摆？为解答这两个问题，本文针对2001至2004年选举周期内澳大利亚联邦政府资助的四项自主裁量拨款项目展开分析。在控制选区相关人口统计特征变量的条件下，研究发现由执政联盟掌控的选区获得了更高比例的自主裁量拨款，且获批的项目拨款数量也更多。在执政党掌控的选区中，定向拨款似乎并未投向支持率更为接近的摇摆选区。更多的自主裁量拨款——尤其是道路建设类拨款——与2004年大选中向执政党倾斜的更显著选票摇摆存在显著关联。