Human Capital-weighted population estimates for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100

We provide a novel dataset of human capital-weighted population size (HCWP) for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100. HCWP summarizes a population's productive capacity and human capital heterogeneity in a single metric, enabling comparisons across countries and over time. The weights are derived from Mincerian earnings functions applied to multi-country census data on educational attainment. The model used to compute the returns to schooling accounts for the diminishing positive relative relationship between education and wages as the overall education of populations rises. The population weights are adjusted by a skills assessment factor representing differences in education quality across countries and years. HCWP is calculated by applying these adjusted human capital weights to population estimates and projections disaggregated by age, sex and education, spanning the period 1970-2020 and 2020-2100 for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Validation analyses demonstrate the utility of the new HCWP data in explaining national income trends. As a more comprehensive population measure than basic size and age-sex indicators, HCWP enhances the power of statistical models aimed at the assessment of socioeconomic change impacts and forecasting.

本研究构建了一套覆盖185个国家、时间跨度为1970年至2100年的人力资本加权人口规模（human capital-weighted population size, HCWP）新型数据集。HCWP可通过单一指标综合表征人口的生产能力与人力资本异质性，支持跨国及跨时间维度的比较分析。该权重基于明瑟收入函数（Mincerian earnings functions）推导得出，计算过程依托多国家教育成就普查数据。用于测算教育回报率的模型，纳入了人口整体受教育水平提升时，教育与工资间的正向相对关系逐步递减这一特征。人口权重会通过技能评估因子进行调整，该因子用于表征不同国家及年份间的教育质量差异。HCWP的计算方式为：将经上述调整的人力资本权重，应用于按年龄、性别与教育水平细分的人口估算与预测数据；其中1970-2020年为历史人口估算数据，2020-2100年则覆盖五种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）情景下的预测结果。验证性分析结果表明，这套新型HCWP数据可有效解释国民收入的变化趋势。相较于单纯的人口规模与年龄-性别结构指标，HCWP是更为全面的人口测度指标，可提升用于评估社会经济变化影响与开展预测的统计模型的效能。